Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors over 150 US tornadoes in March at 99.6% implied probability, driven by Storm Prediction Center preliminary reports exceeding 210 and National Weather Service surveys confirming at least 186 touchdowns as of March 30. Multiple outbreaks from March 5–16, including a rare EF5 in Michigan—the first since 2013—and EF3s fueled by unseasonably warm, humid Gulf air clashing with cold fronts, propelled activity far above the climatological March average of 80–100. This skin-in-the-game assessment reflects robust observational data from radar and ground surveys. Realistic challenges include substantial downgrading during final National Centers for Environmental Information review (historical confirmation ~65% of reports), though late-March reports could add marginally before resolution. NCEI final tallies expected early April.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于150+ 99.6%
130–149 <1%
100–129 <1%
少于70 <1%
$157,556 交易量
$157,556 交易量
Apr 10, 2026
少于70
<1%
70–99
<1%
100–129
<1%
130–149
<1%
150+
100%
150+ 99.6%
130–149 <1%
100–129 <1%
少于70 <1%
$157,556 交易量
$157,556 交易量
Apr 10, 2026
少于70
$25,180 交易量
<1%
70–99
$22,719 交易量
<1%
100–129
$28,866 交易量
<1%
130–149
$28,808 交易量
<1%
150+
$51,983 交易量
100%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors over 150 US tornadoes in March at 99.6% implied probability, driven by Storm Prediction Center preliminary reports exceeding 210 and National Weather Service surveys confirming at least 186 touchdowns as of March 30. Multiple outbreaks from March 5–16, including a rare EF5 in Michigan—the first since 2013—and EF3s fueled by unseasonably warm, humid Gulf air clashing with cold fronts, propelled activity far above the climatological March average of 80–100. This skin-in-the-game assessment reflects robust observational data from radar and ground surveys. Realistic challenges include substantial downgrading during final National Centers for Environmental Information review (historical confirmation ~65% of reports), though late-March reports could add marginally before resolution. NCEI final tallies expected early April.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市场开放时间： Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
交易量
$157,556结束日期
Apr 10, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors over 150 US tornadoes in March at 99.6% implied probability, driven by Storm Prediction Center preliminary reports exceeding 210 and National Weather Service surveys confirming at least 186 touchdowns as of March 30. Multiple outbreaks from March 5–16, including a rare EF5 in Michigan—the first since 2013—and EF3s fueled by unseasonably warm, humid Gulf air clashing with cold fronts, propelled activity far above the climatological March average of 80–100. This skin-in-the-game assessment reflects robust observational data from radar and ground surveys. Realistic challenges include substantial downgrading during final National Centers for Environmental Information review (historical confirmation ~65% of reports), though late-March reports could add marginally before resolution. NCEI final tallies expected early April.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$157,556结束日期
Apr 10, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors over 150 US tornadoes in March at 99.6% implied probability, driven by Storm Prediction Center preliminary reports exceeding 210 and National Weather Service surveys confirming at least 186 touchdowns as of March 30. Multiple outbreaks from March 5–16, including a rare EF5 in Michigan—the first since 2013—and EF3s fueled by unseasonably warm, humid Gulf air clashing with cold fronts, propelled activity far above the climatological March average of 80–100. This skin-in-the-game assessment reflects robust observational data from radar and ground surveys. Realistic challenges include substantial downgrading during final National Centers for Environmental Information review (historical confirmation ~65% of reports), though late-March reports could add marginally before resolution. NCEI final tallies expected early April.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题