The 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.44% as of March 27, 2026—up from 4.15% earlier in the month—driven by resilient U.S. economic growth, steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% during its March 18 FOMC meeting. This uptick reflects trader sentiment pricing in fewer rate cuts amid fiscal deficits and potential tariff impacts, with the yield now above its long-term average of 4.25%. Key downside risks for yields include softening labor data or sub-2% inflation readings, while upward pressure persists from strong GDP momentum. Watch March CPI release around April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC for shifts in the market-implied rate path through 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$138,482 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
3.9%
66%
3.8%
46%
3.7%
39%
3.6%
31%
3.5%
19%
3.0%
15%
2.0%
11%
1.0%
5%
$138,482 交易量
3.9%
$25,171 交易量
66%
3.8%
$26,189 交易量
46%
3.7%
$20,670 交易量
39%
3.6%
$4,645 交易量
31%
3.5%
$29,841 交易量
19%
3.0%
$0 交易量
15%
2.0%
$207 交易量
11%
1.0%
$0 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.44% as of March 27, 2026—up from 4.15% earlier in the month—driven by resilient U.S. economic growth, steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% during its March 18 FOMC meeting. This uptick reflects trader sentiment pricing in fewer rate cuts amid fiscal deficits and potential tariff impacts, with the yield now above its long-term average of 4.25%. Key downside risks for yields include softening labor data or sub-2% inflation readings, while upward pressure persists from strong GDP momentum. Watch March CPI release around April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC for shifts in the market-implied rate path through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
交易量
$138,482结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.44% as of March 27, 2026—up from 4.15% earlier in the month—driven by resilient U.S. economic growth, steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% during its March 18 FOMC meeting. This uptick reflects trader sentiment pricing in fewer rate cuts amid fiscal deficits and potential tariff impacts, with the yield now above its long-term average of 4.25%. Key downside risks for yields include softening labor data or sub-2% inflation readings, while upward pressure persists from strong GDP momentum. Watch March CPI release around April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC for shifts in the market-implied rate path through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$138,482结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.44% as of March 27, 2026—up from 4.15% earlier in the month—driven by resilient U.S. economic growth, steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% during its March 18 FOMC meeting. This uptick reflects trader sentiment pricing in fewer rate cuts amid fiscal deficits and potential tariff impacts, with the yield now above its long-term average of 4.25%. Key downside risks for yields include softening labor data or sub-2% inflation readings, while upward pressure persists from strong GDP momentum. Watch March CPI release around April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC for shifts in the market-implied rate path through 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题