Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast clustering from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project Seoul's highest temperature on March 27 at 12–14°C amid mild spring conditions with light southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Recent 48-hour model runs show a 1–2°C warming shift from earlier cooler outlooks, driven by a retreating cold front and high-pressure ridging over the Korean Peninsula, narrowing probabilities around 13°C (24.5%) as the implied peak. Historical late-March highs average 11–13°C, aligning with current climatological norms, though lingering uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and diurnal heating keeps 12°C (15%) and 14°C (19%) competitive. Daily forecast updates from KMA through March 26 could refine these market-implied odds further.