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Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?

Market icon

Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?

Mar 29

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Mar 29

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

78°F or higher 42%

59°F or below 41%

74-75°F 26%

76-77°F 24%

Polymarket
NEW

78°F or higher 42%

59°F or below 41%

74-75°F 26%

76-77°F 24%

Polymarket
NEW

59°F or below

$5 交易量

41%

60-61°F

$101 交易量

9%

62-63°F

$0 交易量

17%

64-65°F

$0 交易量

17%

66-67°F

$0 交易量

17%

68-69°F

$0 交易量

17%

70-71°F

$0 交易量

17%

72-73°F

$0 交易量

17%

74-75°F

$0 交易量

26%

76-77°F

$0 交易量

24%

78°F or higher

$0 交易量

42%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 4, with market-implied odds splitting nearly evenly at 40.5% for 59°F or below versus 78°F or higher, diverging from the National Weather Service's operational forecast of 72°F under sunny skies. This bimodal sentiment stems from model spread in NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles: cooler outcomes hinge on persistent marine layer stratus suppressing daytime heating amid weak onshore flow post-midweek rain, while hotter scenarios depend on stronger upper-level subsidence and offshore winds eroding clouds for rapid warming. Historical April highs average 64°F with notable variability from coastal microclimates; daily 00Z/12Z model updates through April 3 will clarify steering patterns and boundary layer evolution critical to resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 4, with market-implied odds splitting nearly evenly at 40.5% for 59°F or below versus 78°F or higher, diverging from the National Weather Service's operational forecast of 72°F under sunny skies. This bimodal sentiment stems from model spread in NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles: cooler outcomes hinge on persistent marine layer stratus suppressing daytime heating amid weak onshore flow post-midweek rain, while hotter scenarios depend on stronger upper-level subsidence and offshore winds eroding clouds for rapid warming. Historical April highs average 64°F with notable variability from coastal microclimates; daily 00Z/12Z model updates through April 3 will clarify steering patterns and boundary layer evolution critical to resolution.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 4, with market-implied odds splitting nearly evenly at 40.5% for 59°F or below versus 78°F or higher, diverging from the National Weather Service's operational forecast of 72°F under sunny skies. This bimodal sentiment stems from model spread in NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles: cooler outcomes hinge on persistent marine layer stratus suppressing daytime heating amid weak onshore flow post-midweek rain, while hotter scenarios depend on stronger upper-level subsidence and offshore winds eroding clouds for rapid warming. Historical April highs average 64°F with notable variability from coastal microclimates; daily 00Z/12Z model updates through April 3 will clarify steering patterns and boundary layer evolution critical to resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 4, with market-implied odds splitting nearly evenly at 40.5% for 59°F or below versus 78°F or higher, diverging from the National Weather Service's operational forecast of 72°F under sunny skies. This bimodal sentiment stems from model spread in NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles: cooler outcomes hinge on persistent marine layer stratus suppressing daytime heating amid weak onshore flow post-midweek rain, while hotter scenarios depend on stronger upper-level subsidence and offshore winds eroding clouds for rapid warming. Historical April highs average 64°F with notable variability from coastal microclimates; daily 00Z/12Z model updates through April 3 will clarify steering patterns and boundary layer evolution critical to resolution.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 11 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"78°F or higher"，概率为 42%，其次是"59°F or below"，概率为 41%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 42¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 42%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Mar 29, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 11 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?"的当前领先者是"78°F or higher"，概率为 42%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 42%。紧随其后的结果是"59°F or below"，概率为 41%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。