Ongoing cross-border military exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel, now in their fourth week since Hezbollah's initial rocket barrages on March 2, 2026—triggered by Israeli strikes amid the broader US-Israel conflict with Iran—continue to drive trader sentiment, with Hezbollah claiming over 180 attacks on Israeli military targets and northern settlements in recent days, including a March 26 mortar strike that seriously wounded one IDF soldier. Israel has responded with intensified airstrikes on Beirut suburbs, southern Lebanon infrastructure like bridges over the Litani River, and ground advances into Lebanon, resulting in over 1,100 Lebanese deaths. No ceasefire signals have emerged, as Hezbollah signals defiance and Israeli operations escalate; upcoming diplomatic efforts or further Iranian involvement could alter trajectories, though daily clashes remain the norm amid high escalation risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$672,732 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
March 22
100%
March 27
99%
March 28
99%
March 29
85%
March 30
84%
March 31
86%
$672,732 交易量
March 22
$591,043 交易量
100%
March 27
$24,571 交易量
99%
March 28
$19,562 交易量
99%
March 29
$3,745 交易量
85%
March 30
$2,600 交易量
84%
March 31
$1,613 交易量
86%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing cross-border military exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel, now in their fourth week since Hezbollah's initial rocket barrages on March 2, 2026—triggered by Israeli strikes amid the broader US-Israel conflict with Iran—continue to drive trader sentiment, with Hezbollah claiming over 180 attacks on Israeli military targets and northern settlements in recent days, including a March 26 mortar strike that seriously wounded one IDF soldier. Israel has responded with intensified airstrikes on Beirut suburbs, southern Lebanon infrastructure like bridges over the Litani River, and ground advances into Lebanon, resulting in over 1,100 Lebanese deaths. No ceasefire signals have emerged, as Hezbollah signals defiance and Israeli operations escalate; upcoming diplomatic efforts or further Iranian involvement could alter trajectories, though daily clashes remain the norm amid high escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ET
交易量
$672,732结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing cross-border military exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel, now in their fourth week since Hezbollah's initial rocket barrages on March 2, 2026—triggered by Israeli strikes amid the broader US-Israel conflict with Iran—continue to drive trader sentiment, with Hezbollah claiming over 180 attacks on Israeli military targets and northern settlements in recent days, including a March 26 mortar strike that seriously wounded one IDF soldier. Israel has responded with intensified airstrikes on Beirut suburbs, southern Lebanon infrastructure like bridges over the Litani River, and ground advances into Lebanon, resulting in over 1,100 Lebanese deaths. No ceasefire signals have emerged, as Hezbollah signals defiance and Israeli operations escalate; upcoming diplomatic efforts or further Iranian involvement could alter trajectories, though daily clashes remain the norm amid high escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$672,732结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
Ongoing cross-border military exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel, now in their fourth week since Hezbollah's initial rocket barrages on March 2, 2026—triggered by Israeli strikes amid the broader US-Israel conflict with Iran—continue to drive trader sentiment, with Hezbollah claiming over 180 attacks on Israeli military targets and northern settlements in recent days, including a March 26 mortar strike that seriously wounded one IDF soldier. Israel has responded with intensified airstrikes on Beirut suburbs, southern Lebanon infrastructure like bridges over the Litani River, and ground advances into Lebanon, resulting in over 1,100 Lebanese deaths. No ceasefire signals have emerged, as Hezbollah signals defiance and Israeli operations escalate; upcoming diplomatic efforts or further Iranian involvement could alter trajectories, though daily clashes remain the norm amid high escalation risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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