Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Harvey Weinstein's final prison term as a fallen Hollywood powerbroker, with no prison time leading at 32.3% implied probability amid his deteriorating health at age 73—detailed in a recent Rikers Island interview decrying isolation and assaults—coupled with a history of overturned New York convictions. The closely matched field, including 20-30 years (24.7%) and 10-20 years (21.7%), stems from a pending sexual assault conviction carrying up to 25 years, a separate 16-year California rape sentence, and an imminent third New York rape retrial with jury selection set for April 14. Key swing factors include trial outcomes, appeals, and potential pleas for time served given his frailty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Harvey Weinstein入狱时间？
Harvey Weinstein入狱时间？
无监禁时间 32.3%
20-30年 24.6%
10-20年 21.6%
少于5年 8.6%
$706,292 交易量
$706,292 交易量
2025-12-31
无监禁时间
32%
少于5年
9%
5-10年
8%
10-20年
22%
20-30年
25%
30年以上
9%
无监禁时间 32.3%
20-30年 24.6%
10-20年 21.6%
少于5年 8.6%
$706,292 交易量
$706,292 交易量
2025-12-31
无监禁时间
$297,275 交易量
32%
少于5年
$53,105 交易量
9%
5-10年
$39,053 交易量
8%
10-20年
$123,689 交易量
22%
20-30年
$154,415 交易量
25%
30年以上
$38,766 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Harvey Weinstein's final prison term as a fallen Hollywood powerbroker, with no prison time leading at 32.3% implied probability amid his deteriorating health at age 73—detailed in a recent Rikers Island interview decrying isolation and assaults—coupled with a history of overturned New York convictions. The closely matched field, including 20-30 years (24.7%) and 10-20 years (21.7%), stems from a pending sexual assault conviction carrying up to 25 years, a separate 16-year California rape sentence, and an imminent third New York rape retrial with jury selection set for April 14. Key swing factors include trial outcomes, appeals, and potential pleas for time served given his frailty.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
交易量
$706,292结束日期
2025-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Harvey Weinstein's final prison term as a fallen Hollywood powerbroker, with no prison time leading at 32.3% implied probability amid his deteriorating health at age 73—detailed in a recent Rikers Island interview decrying isolation and assaults—coupled with a history of overturned New York convictions. The closely matched field, including 20-30 years (24.7%) and 10-20 years (21.7%), stems from a pending sexual assault conviction carrying up to 25 years, a separate 16-year California rape sentence, and an imminent third New York rape retrial with jury selection set for April 14. Key swing factors include trial outcomes, appeals, and potential pleas for time served given his frailty.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$706,292结束日期
2025-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Harvey Weinstein's final prison term as a fallen Hollywood powerbroker, with no prison time leading at 32.3% implied probability amid his deteriorating health at age 73—detailed in a recent Rikers Island interview decrying isolation and assaults—coupled with a history of overturned New York convictions. The closely matched field, including 20-30 years (24.7%) and 10-20 years (21.7%), stems from a pending sexual assault conviction carrying up to 25 years, a separate 16-year California rape sentence, and an imminent third New York rape retrial with jury selection set for April 14. Key swing factors include trial outcomes, appeals, and potential pleas for time served given his frailty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题