Trader consensus reflects an 89% implied probability against Israel reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war that erupted on February 28 with massive joint airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, air defenses, and missile sites aimed at regime change. Escalations persist, including Iranian missile barrages on Israel as recently as April 1 via Houthi proxies, Israeli strikes on Iranian energy facilities like South Pars, and explosions in central Iran on April 2-3 amid deepening humanitarian crises. Absent diplomatic relations since 1979—following Iran's revolution and its labeling Israel the "Little Satan"—these direct military confrontations, retaliatory attacks on Gulf states, and US involvement under Trump solidify formidable barriers to normalization, with no official statements signaling de-escalation or talks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$21,231 交易量
$21,231 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$21,231 交易量
$21,231 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 89% implied probability against Israel reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war that erupted on February 28 with massive joint airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, air defenses, and missile sites aimed at regime change. Escalations persist, including Iranian missile barrages on Israel as recently as April 1 via Houthi proxies, Israeli strikes on Iranian energy facilities like South Pars, and explosions in central Iran on April 2-3 amid deepening humanitarian crises. Absent diplomatic relations since 1979—following Iran's revolution and its labeling Israel the "Little Satan"—these direct military confrontations, retaliatory attacks on Gulf states, and US involvement under Trump solidify formidable barriers to normalization, with no official statements signaling de-escalation or talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
交易量
$21,231結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 89% implied probability against Israel reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war that erupted on February 28 with massive joint airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, air defenses, and missile sites aimed at regime change. Escalations persist, including Iranian missile barrages on Israel as recently as April 1 via Houthi proxies, Israeli strikes on Iranian energy facilities like South Pars, and explosions in central Iran on April 2-3 amid deepening humanitarian crises. Absent diplomatic relations since 1979—following Iran's revolution and its labeling Israel the "Little Satan"—these direct military confrontations, retaliatory attacks on Gulf states, and US involvement under Trump solidify formidable barriers to normalization, with no official statements signaling de-escalation or talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$21,231結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 89% implied probability against Israel reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war that erupted on February 28 with massive joint airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, air defenses, and missile sites aimed at regime change. Escalations persist, including Iranian missile barrages on Israel as recently as April 1 via Houthi proxies, Israeli strikes on Iranian energy facilities like South Pars, and explosions in central Iran on April 2-3 amid deepening humanitarian crises. Absent diplomatic relations since 1979—following Iran's revolution and its labeling Israel the "Little Satan"—these direct military confrontations, retaliatory attacks on Gulf states, and US involvement under Trump solidify formidable barriers to normalization, with no official statements signaling de-escalation or talks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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