Market icon
世界·巴西

任何總統候選人會在第一輪巴西選舉中獲勝嗎？

Market icon
世界·巴西

任何總統候選人會在第一輪巴西選舉中獲勝嗎？

是

13% chance
Polymarket

$45,862 交易量

是

13% chance
Polymarket

$45,862 交易量

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent March 2026 polls from AtlasIntel, Datafolha, Quaest, and others show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios at 39-46%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing closely at 32-42%, followed by fragmented support for São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and others below 6%; no candidate exceeds 46%, well short of the 50%+1 threshold for an outright win, amid 10-21% undecided or blank votes. Paraná Governor Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 may consolidate right-wing votes but has not propelled any contender to majority territory, per latest surveys. This competitive field and historical precedent—no first-round victor since 1994—drive trader consensus toward a runoff on October 25, reflected in the 87.5% implied probability for "No." Upcoming debates and economic data could shift dynamics ahead of the October 4 first round.

Recent March 2026 polls from AtlasIntel, Datafolha, Quaest, and others show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios at 39-46%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing closely at 32-42%, followed by fragmented support for São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and others below 6%; no candidate exceeds 46%, well short of the 50%+1 threshold for an outright win, amid 10-21% undecided or blank votes. Paraná Governor Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 may consolidate right-wing votes but has not propelled any contender to majority territory, per latest surveys. This competitive field and historical precedent—no first-round victor since 1994—drive trader consensus toward a runoff on October 25, reflected in the 87.5% implied probability for "No." Upcoming debates and economic data could shift dynamics ahead of the October 4 first round.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent March 2026 polls from AtlasIntel, Datafolha, Quaest, and others show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios at 39-46%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing closely at 32-42%, followed by fragmented support for São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and others below 6%; no candidate exceeds 46%, well short of the 50%+1 threshold for an outright win, amid 10-21% undecided or blank votes. Paraná Governor Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 may consolidate right-wing votes but has not propelled any contender to majority territory, per latest surveys. This competitive field and historical precedent—no first-round victor since 1994—drive trader consensus toward a runoff on October 25, reflected in the 87.5% implied probability for "No." Upcoming debates and economic data could shift dynamics ahead of the October 4 first round.

Recent March 2026 polls from AtlasIntel, Datafolha, Quaest, and others show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios at 39-46%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing closely at 32-42%, followed by fragmented support for São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and others below 6%; no candidate exceeds 46%, well short of the 50%+1 threshold for an outright win, amid 10-21% undecided or blank votes. Paraná Governor Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 may consolidate right-wing votes but has not propelled any contender to majority territory, per latest surveys. This competitive field and historical precedent—no first-round victor since 1994—drive trader consensus toward a runoff on October 25, reflected in the 87.5% implied probability for "No." Upcoming debates and economic data could shift dynamics ahead of the October 4 first round.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"任何總統候選人會在第一輪巴西選舉中獲勝嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "是否有任何總統候選人能在巴西選舉的第一輪中直接獲勝？" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "任何總統候選人會在第一輪巴西選舉中獲勝嗎？" has generated $45.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "任何總統候選人會在第一輪巴西選舉中獲勝嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "任何總統候選人會在第一輪巴西選舉中獲勝嗎？" is "是否有任何總統候選人能在巴西選舉的第一輪中直接獲勝？" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "任何總統候選人會在第一輪巴西選舉中獲勝嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.