The United States has maintained a moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on stockpile stewardship through computer simulations and subcritical experiments managed by the National Nuclear Security Administration. Trader sentiment reflects heightened speculation following Undersecretary of State Thomas DiNanno's March 24, 2026, Senate testimony, where he did not rule out resuming tests to match alleged low-yield activities by Russia and China, per President Trump's October 2025 directive for parity assessments by the Energy and Defense departments—no decision has been finalized. A March earthquake swarm near Tonopah Test Range fueled unverified online rumors amid US-Iran tensions, though USGS data indicates natural seismic activity. Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen opposes resumption over fallout risks, with nonproliferation advocates warning of global escalation; upcoming arms control talks could influence outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$611,034 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
2%
September 30, 2026
11%
December 31, 2026
16%
$611,034 交易量
2026年6月30日
$0 交易量
2%
September 30, 2026
$122 交易量
11%
December 31, 2026
$693 交易量
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on stockpile stewardship through computer simulations and subcritical experiments managed by the National Nuclear Security Administration. Trader sentiment reflects heightened speculation following Undersecretary of State Thomas DiNanno's March 24, 2026, Senate testimony, where he did not rule out resuming tests to match alleged low-yield activities by Russia and China, per President Trump's October 2025 directive for parity assessments by the Energy and Defense departments—no decision has been finalized. A March earthquake swarm near Tonopah Test Range fueled unverified online rumors amid US-Iran tensions, though USGS data indicates natural seismic activity. Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen opposes resumption over fallout risks, with nonproliferation advocates warning of global escalation; upcoming arms control talks could influence outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$611,034結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on stockpile stewardship through computer simulations and subcritical experiments managed by the National Nuclear Security Administration. Trader sentiment reflects heightened speculation following Undersecretary of State Thomas DiNanno's March 24, 2026, Senate testimony, where he did not rule out resuming tests to match alleged low-yield activities by Russia and China, per President Trump's October 2025 directive for parity assessments by the Energy and Defense departments—no decision has been finalized. A March earthquake swarm near Tonopah Test Range fueled unverified online rumors amid US-Iran tensions, though USGS data indicates natural seismic activity. Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen opposes resumption over fallout risks, with nonproliferation advocates warning of global escalation; upcoming arms control talks could influence outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$611,034結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has maintained a moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on stockpile stewardship through computer simulations and subcritical experiments managed by the National Nuclear Security Administration. Trader sentiment reflects heightened speculation following Undersecretary of State Thomas DiNanno's March 24, 2026, Senate testimony, where he did not rule out resuming tests to match alleged low-yield activities by Russia and China, per President Trump's October 2025 directive for parity assessments by the Energy and Defense departments—no decision has been finalized. A March earthquake swarm near Tonopah Test Range fueled unverified online rumors amid US-Iran tensions, though USGS data indicates natural seismic activity. Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen opposes resumption over fallout risks, with nonproliferation advocates warning of global escalation; upcoming arms control talks could influence outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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