US special forces conducted a combat search-and-rescue operation inside Iran following the April 3 downing of a US F-15E fighter jet over southwestern Iran, rescuing one crew member while the second remains missing amid an Iranian manhunt offering public rewards. This first verified ground entry since the US-Israel war began with February 28 airstrikes—assassinating Supreme Leader Khamenei—has heightened escalation risks, as over 50,000 US troops including Marines and 82nd Airborne amass nearby for potential larger operations. President Trump's threats of intensified strikes after recent bridge hits, coupled with the pilot's uncertain fate and Strait of Hormuz tensions, loom as pivotal catalysts amid the air-dominant campaign entering its sixth week.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$116,932,256 交易量
2026-03-01
3月31日
<1%
4月30日
81%
12月31日
89%
$116,932,256 交易量
3月31日
$72,993,370 交易量
<1%
4月30日
$31,115,326 交易量
81%
12月31日
$10,772,491 交易量
89%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US special forces conducted a combat search-and-rescue operation inside Iran following the April 3 downing of a US F-15E fighter jet over southwestern Iran, rescuing one crew member while the second remains missing amid an Iranian manhunt offering public rewards. This first verified ground entry since the US-Israel war began with February 28 airstrikes—assassinating Supreme Leader Khamenei—has heightened escalation risks, as over 50,000 US troops including Marines and 82nd Airborne amass nearby for potential larger operations. President Trump's threats of intensified strikes after recent bridge hits, coupled with the pilot's uncertain fate and Strait of Hormuz tensions, loom as pivotal catalysts amid the air-dominant campaign entering its sixth week.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
交易量
$116,932,256市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US special forces conducted a combat search-and-rescue operation inside Iran following the April 3 downing of a US F-15E fighter jet over southwestern Iran, rescuing one crew member while the second remains missing amid an Iranian manhunt offering public rewards. This first verified ground entry since the US-Israel war began with February 28 airstrikes—assassinating Supreme Leader Khamenei—has heightened escalation risks, as over 50,000 US troops including Marines and 82nd Airborne amass nearby for potential larger operations. President Trump's threats of intensified strikes after recent bridge hits, coupled with the pilot's uncertain fate and Strait of Hormuz tensions, loom as pivotal catalysts amid the air-dominant campaign entering its sixth week.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$116,932,256市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
US special forces conducted a combat search-and-rescue operation inside Iran following the April 3 downing of a US F-15E fighter jet over southwestern Iran, rescuing one crew member while the second remains missing amid an Iranian manhunt offering public rewards. This first verified ground entry since the US-Israel war began with February 28 airstrikes—assassinating Supreme Leader Khamenei—has heightened escalation risks, as over 50,000 US troops including Marines and 82nd Airborne amass nearby for potential larger operations. President Trump's threats of intensified strikes after recent bridge hits, coupled with the pilot's uncertain fate and Strait of Hormuz tensions, loom as pivotal catalysts amid the air-dominant campaign entering its sixth week.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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