Zelensky's April 4 meetings with Erdogan in Istanbul, where Turkey offered to host direct Ukraine-US-Russia negotiations, represent the freshest diplomatic signal amid a frontline stalemate, with Russian forces recording near-zero territorial gains in March for the first time since 2023. This follows Zelensky's rebuffed Easter energy truce proposal via US mediators, met by massive Russian drone barrages killing dozens and mutual escalation accusations. Trader consensus at 53.5% Yes for a ceasefire by end-2027 reflects war fatigue, minimal Russian advances despite captured 2026-27 offensive plans, and potential US pressure amid shifting aid priorities to Iran tensions boosting Moscow's oil revenues. Breakthrough talks or aid cuts could tip toward Yes; major Russian advances or hardened stances toward No.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
最新
最新
2027-12-31
最新
最新
2027-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Zelensky's April 4 meetings with Erdogan in Istanbul, where Turkey offered to host direct Ukraine-US-Russia negotiations, represent the freshest diplomatic signal amid a frontline stalemate, with Russian forces recording near-zero territorial gains in March for the first time since 2023. This follows Zelensky's rebuffed Easter energy truce proposal via US mediators, met by massive Russian drone barrages killing dozens and mutual escalation accusations. Trader consensus at 53.5% Yes for a ceasefire by end-2027 reflects war fatigue, minimal Russian advances despite captured 2026-27 offensive plans, and potential US pressure amid shifting aid priorities to Iran tensions boosting Moscow's oil revenues. Breakthrough talks or aid cuts could tip toward Yes; major Russian advances or hardened stances toward No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
市場開放時間： Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
交易量
$4,209結束日期
2027-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Zelensky's April 4 meetings with Erdogan in Istanbul, where Turkey offered to host direct Ukraine-US-Russia negotiations, represent the freshest diplomatic signal amid a frontline stalemate, with Russian forces recording near-zero territorial gains in March for the first time since 2023. This follows Zelensky's rebuffed Easter energy truce proposal via US mediators, met by massive Russian drone barrages killing dozens and mutual escalation accusations. Trader consensus at 53.5% Yes for a ceasefire by end-2027 reflects war fatigue, minimal Russian advances despite captured 2026-27 offensive plans, and potential US pressure amid shifting aid priorities to Iran tensions boosting Moscow's oil revenues. Breakthrough talks or aid cuts could tip toward Yes; major Russian advances or hardened stances toward No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$4,209結束日期
2027-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Zelensky's April 4 meetings with Erdogan in Istanbul, where Turkey offered to host direct Ukraine-US-Russia negotiations, represent the freshest diplomatic signal amid a frontline stalemate, with Russian forces recording near-zero territorial gains in March for the first time since 2023. This follows Zelensky's rebuffed Easter energy truce proposal via US mediators, met by massive Russian drone barrages killing dozens and mutual escalation accusations. Trader consensus at 53.5% Yes for a ceasefire by end-2027 reflects war fatigue, minimal Russian advances despite captured 2026-27 offensive plans, and potential US pressure amid shifting aid priorities to Iran tensions boosting Moscow's oil revenues. Breakthrough talks or aid cuts could tip toward Yes; major Russian advances or hardened stances toward No.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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