US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine show tentative progress, with Zelenskiy describing recent discussions with Trump administration envoys as positive amid proposals for security guarantees, fostering trader optimism for a ceasefire by end-2027 reflected in the 53.5% Yes implied probability. However, this closely contested market balances on Russia's rejection of Zelenskiy's Easter truce offer through massive drone barrages—killing civilians and targeting energy infrastructure—coupled with claims of full control over Luhansk region, signaling ongoing escalation. Battlefield stalemates, war fatigue, and distractions like the Iran conflict create uncertainty; breakthroughs in trilateral negotiations or de-escalation signals could tip toward Yes, while further advances or stalled talks favor No.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
最新
最新
2027-12-31
最新
最新
2027-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine show tentative progress, with Zelenskiy describing recent discussions with Trump administration envoys as positive amid proposals for security guarantees, fostering trader optimism for a ceasefire by end-2027 reflected in the 53.5% Yes implied probability. However, this closely contested market balances on Russia's rejection of Zelenskiy's Easter truce offer through massive drone barrages—killing civilians and targeting energy infrastructure—coupled with claims of full control over Luhansk region, signaling ongoing escalation. Battlefield stalemates, war fatigue, and distractions like the Iran conflict create uncertainty; breakthroughs in trilateral negotiations or de-escalation signals could tip toward Yes, while further advances or stalled talks favor No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
市場開放時間： Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
交易量
$3,808結束日期
2027-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine show tentative progress, with Zelenskiy describing recent discussions with Trump administration envoys as positive amid proposals for security guarantees, fostering trader optimism for a ceasefire by end-2027 reflected in the 53.5% Yes implied probability. However, this closely contested market balances on Russia's rejection of Zelenskiy's Easter truce offer through massive drone barrages—killing civilians and targeting energy infrastructure—coupled with claims of full control over Luhansk region, signaling ongoing escalation. Battlefield stalemates, war fatigue, and distractions like the Iran conflict create uncertainty; breakthroughs in trilateral negotiations or de-escalation signals could tip toward Yes, while further advances or stalled talks favor No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$3,808結束日期
2027-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine show tentative progress, with Zelenskiy describing recent discussions with Trump administration envoys as positive amid proposals for security guarantees, fostering trader optimism for a ceasefire by end-2027 reflected in the 53.5% Yes implied probability. However, this closely contested market balances on Russia's rejection of Zelenskiy's Easter truce offer through massive drone barrages—killing civilians and targeting energy infrastructure—coupled with claims of full control over Luhansk region, signaling ongoing escalation. Battlefield stalemates, war fatigue, and distractions like the Iran conflict create uncertainty; breakthroughs in trilateral negotiations or de-escalation signals could tip toward Yes, while further advances or stalled talks favor No.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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