Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability to win Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's extreme R+27 partisan voting index—the sixth most Republican nationally—and incumbent Adrian Smith's unchallenged dominance. Smith, who cruised to 80% victory in 2024, holds a massive $1.3 million cash advantage over underfunded rivals, with forecasters like Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections unanimously rating it Solid or Safe Republican. Recent filings created a crowded field, including GOP primary challenger David Huebner (rancher and ex-Border Patrol agent), unopposed Democrat Becky Lynn Stille, and independents Macey Budke and Mark Cohen, but no polls show competitive threats. The May 12 primaries loom, though a GOP upset or late scandal, health event, or national Democratic wave would be needed to challenge this trajectory ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和黨
93%
民主黨
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和黨
$0 交易量
93%
民主黨
$0 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability to win Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's extreme R+27 partisan voting index—the sixth most Republican nationally—and incumbent Adrian Smith's unchallenged dominance. Smith, who cruised to 80% victory in 2024, holds a massive $1.3 million cash advantage over underfunded rivals, with forecasters like Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections unanimously rating it Solid or Safe Republican. Recent filings created a crowded field, including GOP primary challenger David Huebner (rancher and ex-Border Patrol agent), unopposed Democrat Becky Lynn Stille, and independents Macey Budke and Mark Cohen, but no polls show competitive threats. The May 12 primaries loom, though a GOP upset or late scandal, health event, or national Democratic wave would be needed to challenge this trajectory ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability to win Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's extreme R+27 partisan voting index—the sixth most Republican nationally—and incumbent Adrian Smith's unchallenged dominance. Smith, who cruised to 80% victory in 2024, holds a massive $1.3 million cash advantage over underfunded rivals, with forecasters like Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections unanimously rating it Solid or Safe Republican. Recent filings created a crowded field, including GOP primary challenger David Huebner (rancher and ex-Border Patrol agent), unopposed Democrat Becky Lynn Stille, and independents Macey Budke and Mark Cohen, but no polls show competitive threats. The May 12 primaries loom, though a GOP upset or late scandal, health event, or national Democratic wave would be needed to challenge this trajectory ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability to win Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's extreme R+27 partisan voting index—the sixth most Republican nationally—and incumbent Adrian Smith's unchallenged dominance. Smith, who cruised to 80% victory in 2024, holds a massive $1.3 million cash advantage over underfunded rivals, with forecasters like Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections unanimously rating it Solid or Safe Republican. Recent filings created a crowded field, including GOP primary challenger David Huebner (rancher and ex-Border Patrol agent), unopposed Democrat Becky Lynn Stille, and independents Macey Budke and Mark Cohen, but no polls show competitive threats. The May 12 primaries loom, though a GOP upset or late scandal, health event, or national Democratic wave would be needed to challenge this trajectory ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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