Redistricting after a Supreme Court ruling shifted Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District toward a Republican advantage by reducing its Black voting-age population share and aligning it more closely with statewide partisan trends, giving Rhett Marques the structural edge reflected in the 71.5% trader consensus. Incumbent Shomari Figures retains name recognition and Democratic support in urban and minority areas, yet recent polling averages remain close while fundamentals and ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as Likely or Lean Republican. October exchanges over Figures’ votes on stock-trading restrictions and Marques’ state-level tax record, coupled with differing ad spending and a debate standoff, have sharpened campaign contrasts without altering the map-driven positioning ahead of the November 3 general election.