Trader consensus favors a US-Iran ceasefire at 66.5% implied probability over another Iran leadership change, driven by accelerating diplomatic efforts amid ongoing military actions. President Trump announced progress on a US 15-point plan to end hostilities, with indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and Afghanistan; Iran is reviewing the proposal while issuing counter-demands and warnings against US ground troops. Despite US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites as recently as March 28, White House extensions of deadlines signal de-escalation potential. Leadership uncertainty lingers from reports of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's injury or coma post-airstrike earlier this month, with IRGC pledging continuity but no confirmed transition, underscoring regime fragility without imminent resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Leadership Change
$28,183 交易量
$28,183 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
Leadership Change
$28,183 交易量
$28,183 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Leadership Change" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors a US-Iran ceasefire at 66.5% implied probability over another Iran leadership change, driven by accelerating diplomatic efforts amid ongoing military actions. President Trump announced progress on a US 15-point plan to end hostilities, with indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and Afghanistan; Iran is reviewing the proposal while issuing counter-demands and warnings against US ground troops. Despite US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites as recently as March 28, White House extensions of deadlines signal de-escalation potential. Leadership uncertainty lingers from reports of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's injury or coma post-airstrike earlier this month, with IRGC pledging continuity but no confirmed transition, underscoring regime fragility without imminent resolution.
This market will resolve to "Leadership Change" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 13, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
交易量
$28,183結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Leadership Change" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors a US-Iran ceasefire at 66.5% implied probability over another Iran leadership change, driven by accelerating diplomatic efforts amid ongoing military actions. President Trump announced progress on a US 15-point plan to end hostilities, with indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and Afghanistan; Iran is reviewing the proposal while issuing counter-demands and warnings against US ground troops. Despite US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites as recently as March 28, White House extensions of deadlines signal de-escalation potential. Leadership uncertainty lingers from reports of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's injury or coma post-airstrike earlier this month, with IRGC pledging continuity but no confirmed transition, underscoring regime fragility without imminent resolution.
This market will resolve to "Leadership Change" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$28,183結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors a US-Iran ceasefire at 66.5% implied probability over another Iran leadership change, driven by accelerating diplomatic efforts amid ongoing military actions. President Trump announced progress on a US 15-point plan to end hostilities, with indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and Afghanistan; Iran is reviewing the proposal while issuing counter-demands and warnings against US ground troops. Despite US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites as recently as March 28, White House extensions of deadlines signal de-escalation potential. Leadership uncertainty lingers from reports of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's injury or coma post-airstrike earlier this month, with IRGC pledging continuity but no confirmed transition, underscoring regime fragility without imminent resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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