Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, DWD's ICON, and GFS models for Munich's highest temperature on April 6, with probabilities clustered around both 20°C+ (24%)—driven by potential southerly föhn winds from the Alps warming downslope air—and 10°C or below (23.5%), tied to possible northerly cold advection or persistent cloud cover. This bimodal spread arises from divergent North Atlantic geopotential height patterns, where a strengthening ridge could import Mediterranean warmth while a trough risks Arctic intrusions, amplifying early spring variability (historical April 6 average ~13°C). Key differentiator: föhn onset depends on pressure gradients over the Alps; watch DWD and ECMWF 12Z updates tomorrow for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Munich on April 6?
Highest temperature in Munich on April 6?
20°C or higher 17%
15°C 16%
16°C 15%
17°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-04-06
10°C或以下
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
7%
13°C
7%
14°C
10%
15°C
11%
16°C
15%
17°C
14%
18°C
9%
19°C
6%
20°C or higher
17%
20°C or higher 17%
15°C 16%
16°C 15%
17°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-04-06
10°C或以下
$255 交易量
1%
11°C
$565 交易量
1%
12°C
$0 交易量
7%
13°C
$0 交易量
7%
14°C
$0 交易量
10%
15°C
$10 交易量
11%
16°C
$10 交易量
15%
17°C
$10 交易量
14%
18°C
$0 交易量
9%
19°C
$0 交易量
6%
20°C or higher
$10 交易量
17%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, DWD's ICON, and GFS models for Munich's highest temperature on April 6, with probabilities clustered around both 20°C+ (24%)—driven by potential southerly föhn winds from the Alps warming downslope air—and 10°C or below (23.5%), tied to possible northerly cold advection or persistent cloud cover. This bimodal spread arises from divergent North Atlantic geopotential height patterns, where a strengthening ridge could import Mediterranean warmth while a trough risks Arctic intrusions, amplifying early spring variability (historical April 6 average ~13°C). Key differentiator: föhn onset depends on pressure gradients over the Alps; watch DWD and ECMWF 12Z updates tomorrow for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
交易量
$860結束日期
2026-04-06市場開放時間
Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, DWD's ICON, and GFS models for Munich's highest temperature on April 6, with probabilities clustered around both 20°C+ (24%)—driven by potential southerly föhn winds from the Alps warming downslope air—and 10°C or below (23.5%), tied to possible northerly cold advection or persistent cloud cover. This bimodal spread arises from divergent North Atlantic geopotential height patterns, where a strengthening ridge could import Mediterranean warmth while a trough risks Arctic intrusions, amplifying early spring variability (historical April 6 average ~13°C). Key differentiator: föhn onset depends on pressure gradients over the Alps; watch DWD and ECMWF 12Z updates tomorrow for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$860結束日期
2026-04-06市場開放時間
Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, DWD's ICON, and GFS models for Munich's highest temperature on April 6, with probabilities clustered around both 20°C+ (24%)—driven by potential southerly föhn winds from the Alps warming downslope air—and 10°C or below (23.5%), tied to possible northerly cold advection or persistent cloud cover. This bimodal spread arises from divergent North Atlantic geopotential height patterns, where a strengthening ridge could import Mediterranean warmth while a trough risks Arctic intrusions, amplifying early spring variability (historical April 6 average ~13°C). Key differentiator: föhn onset depends on pressure gradients over the Alps; watch DWD and ECMWF 12Z updates tomorrow for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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