Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 90.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcement as of mid-April, despite the firm's explosive growth to a $5.4 billion annual recurring revenue run-rate with over 65% year-over-year expansion announced in February. The data and AI platform's February completion of a $5 billion funding round—plus $2 billion in new debt—at a $134 billion private valuation provides substantial runway, reducing urgency amid volatile public markets and high multiples for enterprise software like its Lakehouse architecture supporting AI/ML workloads. CEO Ali Ghodsi has emphasized strategic growth over timing in recent interviews, with no indications of acceleration. A surprise confidential S-1 filing or favorable regulatory shifts could challenge this, but typical IPO timelines make a Q2 debut unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年6月30日之前不上市 90.5%
2500 億以上 4.0%
175–200 億 1.9%
1,250–1,500 億 1.9%
$371,820 交易量
$371,820 交易量
低於 1,000 億
1%
1,000–1,250 億美元
1%
1,250–1,500 億
2%
1,500–1,750 億
1%
175–200 億
2%
2,000–2,500 億
1%
2500 億以上
4%
2026年6月30日之前不上市
91%
2026年6月30日之前不上市 90.5%
2500 億以上 4.0%
175–200 億 1.9%
1,250–1,500 億 1.9%
$371,820 交易量
$371,820 交易量
低於 1,000 億
1%
1,000–1,250 億美元
1%
1,250–1,500 億
2%
1,500–1,750 億
1%
175–200 億
2%
2,000–2,500 億
1%
2500 億以上
4%
2026年6月30日之前不上市
91%
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間: Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 90.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcement as of mid-April, despite the firm's explosive growth to a $5.4 billion annual recurring revenue run-rate with over 65% year-over-year expansion announced in February. The data and AI platform's February completion of a $5 billion funding round—plus $2 billion in new debt—at a $134 billion private valuation provides substantial runway, reducing urgency amid volatile public markets and high multiples for enterprise software like its Lakehouse architecture supporting AI/ML workloads. CEO Ali Ghodsi has emphasized strategic growth over timing in recent interviews, with no indications of acceleration. A surprise confidential S-1 filing or favorable regulatory shifts could challenge this, but typical IPO timelines make a Q2 debut unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions