Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, House Democratic Caucus chair, commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to retain CA-33 due to his decade-long dominance in this D+7 district, where it voted 54% Democratic in the 2024 presidential race, and massive fundraising edge with over $3 million cash on hand as of late 2025—far outpacing multiple underfunded Republican primary challengers like Tom Herman and Stephanie Vargas. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days since the March 6 filing deadline finalized the field, including a young progressive Democrat rival. The June 2 top-two primary likely advances Aguilar to November's general election matchup. Scenarios like a primary upset, personal scandal, health issue, or extraordinary GOP turnout could challenge this, though historical incumbent re-election rates exceed 90% in safe seats.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主黨
92%
共和黨
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主黨
$0 交易量
92%
共和黨
$0 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, House Democratic Caucus chair, commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to retain CA-33 due to his decade-long dominance in this D+7 district, where it voted 54% Democratic in the 2024 presidential race, and massive fundraising edge with over $3 million cash on hand as of late 2025—far outpacing multiple underfunded Republican primary challengers like Tom Herman and Stephanie Vargas. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days since the March 6 filing deadline finalized the field, including a young progressive Democrat rival. The June 2 top-two primary likely advances Aguilar to November's general election matchup. Scenarios like a primary upset, personal scandal, health issue, or extraordinary GOP turnout could challenge this, though historical incumbent re-election rates exceed 90% in safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, House Democratic Caucus chair, commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to retain CA-33 due to his decade-long dominance in this D+7 district, where it voted 54% Democratic in the 2024 presidential race, and massive fundraising edge with over $3 million cash on hand as of late 2025—far outpacing multiple underfunded Republican primary challengers like Tom Herman and Stephanie Vargas. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days since the March 6 filing deadline finalized the field, including a young progressive Democrat rival. The June 2 top-two primary likely advances Aguilar to November's general election matchup. Scenarios like a primary upset, personal scandal, health issue, or extraordinary GOP turnout could challenge this, though historical incumbent re-election rates exceed 90% in safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar, House Democratic Caucus chair, commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to retain CA-33 due to his decade-long dominance in this D+7 district, where it voted 54% Democratic in the 2024 presidential race, and massive fundraising edge with over $3 million cash on hand as of late 2025—far outpacing multiple underfunded Republican primary challengers like Tom Herman and Stephanie Vargas. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days since the March 6 filing deadline finalized the field, including a young progressive Democrat rival. The June 2 top-two primary likely advances Aguilar to November's general election matchup. Scenarios like a primary upset, personal scandal, health issue, or extraordinary GOP turnout could challenge this, though historical incumbent re-election rates exceed 90% in safe seats.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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