Incumbent Rep. Adelita Grijalva's commanding victory in the September 2025 special election, where she decisively defeated Republican Daniel Butierez by a wide margin, anchors trader consensus at 91% for a Democratic hold in Arizona's 7th Congressional District. The district's D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index underscores its safe Democratic status, bolstered by Grijalva's name recognition as successor to her late father, longtime Rep. Raúl Grijalva, and lack of competitive polling or challengers as primaries approach on July 21, 2026. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with a likely rematch against Butierez in the November general. While odds exceed 90%, a Democratic primary upset, GOP recruitment of a stronger nominee, incumbent scandal, or national midterm wave could shift sentiment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-03
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
9%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
Democratic Party
$2,725 交易量
91%
Republican Party
$3,203 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Adelita Grijalva's commanding victory in the September 2025 special election, where she decisively defeated Republican Daniel Butierez by a wide margin, anchors trader consensus at 91% for a Democratic hold in Arizona's 7th Congressional District. The district's D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index underscores its safe Democratic status, bolstered by Grijalva's name recognition as successor to her late father, longtime Rep. Raúl Grijalva, and lack of competitive polling or challengers as primaries approach on July 21, 2026. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with a likely rematch against Butierez in the November general. While odds exceed 90%, a Democratic primary upset, GOP recruitment of a stronger nominee, incumbent scandal, or national midterm wave could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$5,928結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Adelita Grijalva's commanding victory in the September 2025 special election, where she decisively defeated Republican Daniel Butierez by a wide margin, anchors trader consensus at 91% for a Democratic hold in Arizona's 7th Congressional District. The district's D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index underscores its safe Democratic status, bolstered by Grijalva's name recognition as successor to her late father, longtime Rep. Raúl Grijalva, and lack of competitive polling or challengers as primaries approach on July 21, 2026. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with a likely rematch against Butierez in the November general. While odds exceed 90%, a Democratic primary upset, GOP recruitment of a stronger nominee, incumbent scandal, or national midterm wave could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,928結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Adelita Grijalva's commanding victory in the September 2025 special election, where she decisively defeated Republican Daniel Butierez by a wide margin, anchors trader consensus at 91% for a Democratic hold in Arizona's 7th Congressional District. The district's D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index underscores its safe Democratic status, bolstered by Grijalva's name recognition as successor to her late father, longtime Rep. Raúl Grijalva, and lack of competitive polling or challengers as primaries approach on July 21, 2026. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with a likely rematch against Butierez in the November general. While odds exceed 90%, a Democratic primary upset, GOP recruitment of a stronger nominee, incumbent scandal, or national midterm wave could shift sentiment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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