Sam Liccardo, the Democratic incumbent and former San José mayor, secured the top spot in the June 2026 top-two primary with 75.6% of the vote in California's 16th congressional district, advancing against Republican Peter Soulé. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's partisan lean, recent mid-decade redistricting that favored Democrats, and Liccardo's substantial fundraising edge exceeding $3.5 million. Soulé, an investor, advanced with just 10.8% in the primary amid a split Republican field. With the November 3 general election weeks away, trader consensus aligns with these structural advantages. Potential shifts could stem from unforeseen late developments such as candidate health issues or major national political events, though the current margin leaves limited room for reversal.