Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a strong position in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District due to the seat’s R+6 partisan voting index and the district’s consistent Republican tilt in recent cycles, including Donald Trump’s 2024 victory there. Forecasters rate the race Likely Republican, with models projecting Finstad victory margins of roughly five to sixteen points. Democrat Jake Johnson, a Rochester teacher who won his August primary, has centered his campaign on Finstad’s votes on tariffs, rural health care funding, and other cost-related issues, drawing substantial outside spending from both parties. A late September internal poll showed Johnson narrowly ahead, but broader polling averages and fundamentals continue to favor the incumbent ahead of the November 3 general election.