The European Central Bank’s April 30 decision to hold its deposit facility rate at 2% amid April inflation rising to 3% and energy prices elevated by Middle East tensions has reinforced trader expectations that no rate cut will occur through the end of 2026. Staff projections now show 2026 headline inflation averaging 2.6–2.7%, well above the 2% target, while first-quarter GDP growth slowed to 0.1%. Policymakers openly discussed tightening options and remain data-dependent without pre-committing to easing, prompting analysts including Morgan Stanley to abandon prior cut forecasts. Markets currently price in potential hikes starting as early as June, outweighing downside growth risks and sustaining the 88% implied probability of no reduction this year.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$27,913 Обс.
$27,913 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$27,913 Обс.
$27,913 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Central Bank’s April 30 decision to hold its deposit facility rate at 2% amid April inflation rising to 3% and energy prices elevated by Middle East tensions has reinforced trader expectations that no rate cut will occur through the end of 2026. Staff projections now show 2026 headline inflation averaging 2.6–2.7%, well above the 2% target, while first-quarter GDP growth slowed to 0.1%. Policymakers openly discussed tightening options and remain data-dependent without pre-committing to easing, prompting analysts including Morgan Stanley to abandon prior cut forecasts. Markets currently price in potential hikes starting as early as June, outweighing downside growth risks and sustaining the 88% implied probability of no reduction this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$27,913Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Central Bank’s April 30 decision to hold its deposit facility rate at 2% amid April inflation rising to 3% and energy prices elevated by Middle East tensions has reinforced trader expectations that no rate cut will occur through the end of 2026. Staff projections now show 2026 headline inflation averaging 2.6–2.7%, well above the 2% target, while first-quarter GDP growth slowed to 0.1%. Policymakers openly discussed tightening options and remain data-dependent without pre-committing to easing, prompting analysts including Morgan Stanley to abandon prior cut forecasts. Markets currently price in potential hikes starting as early as June, outweighing downside growth risks and sustaining the 88% implied probability of no reduction this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$27,913Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The European Central Bank’s April 30 decision to hold its deposit facility rate at 2% amid April inflation rising to 3% and energy prices elevated by Middle East tensions has reinforced trader expectations that no rate cut will occur through the end of 2026. Staff projections now show 2026 headline inflation averaging 2.6–2.7%, well above the 2% target, while first-quarter GDP growth slowed to 0.1%. Policymakers openly discussed tightening options and remain data-dependent without pre-committing to easing, prompting analysts including Morgan Stanley to abandon prior cut forecasts. Markets currently price in potential hikes starting as early as June, outweighing downside growth risks and sustaining the 88% implied probability of no reduction this year.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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