Geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran conflict have sharply elevated euro-area energy prices, pushing ECB staff inflation projections to 2.6% for 2026 and prompting Governing Council members to signal data-dependent tightening. After holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April, officials including Lagarde, Nagel, Cipollone, and Kazimir have highlighted the risk of second-round effects, with markets and surveys now pricing at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes beginning as early as June. This combination of persistent price pressures and explicit forward guidance underpins the 96.5% trader consensus on a rate hike occurring in 2026. A swift de-escalation leading to lower energy costs or substantially weaker growth and inflation readings could still shift the outlook before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоECB rate hike in 2026?
ECB rate hike in 2026?
$124,184 Обс.
$124,184 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$124,184 Обс.
$124,184 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran conflict have sharply elevated euro-area energy prices, pushing ECB staff inflation projections to 2.6% for 2026 and prompting Governing Council members to signal data-dependent tightening. After holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April, officials including Lagarde, Nagel, Cipollone, and Kazimir have highlighted the risk of second-round effects, with markets and surveys now pricing at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes beginning as early as June. This combination of persistent price pressures and explicit forward guidance underpins the 96.5% trader consensus on a rate hike occurring in 2026. A swift de-escalation leading to lower energy costs or substantially weaker growth and inflation readings could still shift the outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$124,184Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran conflict have sharply elevated euro-area energy prices, pushing ECB staff inflation projections to 2.6% for 2026 and prompting Governing Council members to signal data-dependent tightening. After holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April, officials including Lagarde, Nagel, Cipollone, and Kazimir have highlighted the risk of second-round effects, with markets and surveys now pricing at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes beginning as early as June. This combination of persistent price pressures and explicit forward guidance underpins the 96.5% trader consensus on a rate hike occurring in 2026. A swift de-escalation leading to lower energy costs or substantially weaker growth and inflation readings could still shift the outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$124,184Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran conflict have sharply elevated euro-area energy prices, pushing ECB staff inflation projections to 2.6% for 2026 and prompting Governing Council members to signal data-dependent tightening. After holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April, officials including Lagarde, Nagel, Cipollone, and Kazimir have highlighted the risk of second-round effects, with markets and surveys now pricing at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes beginning as early as June. This combination of persistent price pressures and explicit forward guidance underpins the 96.5% trader consensus on a rate hike occurring in 2026. A swift de-escalation leading to lower energy costs or substantially weaker growth and inflation readings could still shift the outlook before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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