Skip to main content
icon for GDP growth in 2026
Економ·Економічна політика

GDP growth in 2026

icon for GDP growth in 2026
Економ·Економічна політика

GDP growth in 2026

Apr 30

Jan 29, 2027

Apr 30

Jan 29, 2027

>2.5% 50%

1.5–2.0% 17.3%

2.0–2.5% 12%

1.0–1.5% 8.7%

Polymarket

$27,102 Обс.

>2.5% 50%

1.5–2.0% 17.3%

2.0–2.5% 12%

1.0–1.5% 8.7%

Polymarket

$27,102 Обс.

<0.5%

$3,772 Обс.

8%

0.5–1.0%

$15,119 Обс.

6%

1.0–1.5%

$1,500 Обс.

9%

1.5–2.0%

$1,317 Обс.

12%

2.0–2.5%

$1,433 Обс.

12%

>2.5%

$3,961 Обс.

50%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 49.5% implied probability for 2026 real gross domestic product growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting closely contested sentiment amid recent economic softening, with lower brackets like 2.0–2.5% at 12% gaining from Q4 2025 GDP's downward revision to 0.5% annualized (BEA third estimate, April 9) and Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast dropping to 1.2% for Q1 2026 (April 21 update). This tempers full-year optimism despite Federal Reserve March Summary of Economic Projections median at 2.4%, supported by resilient labor markets but pressured by moderating consumer spending and subdued business investment. Key swing factor: BEA Q1 advance estimate on April 30, alongside upcoming inflation data and FOMC May meeting, could shift the rate path and growth trajectory.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$27,102
Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 49.5% implied probability for 2026 real gross domestic product growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting closely contested sentiment amid recent economic softening, with lower brackets like 2.0–2.5% at 12% gaining from Q4 2025 GDP's downward revision to 0.5% annualized (BEA third estimate, April 9) and Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast dropping to 1.2% for Q1 2026 (April 21 update). This tempers full-year optimism despite Federal Reserve March Summary of Economic Projections median at 2.4%, supported by resilient labor markets but pressured by moderating consumer spending and subdued business investment. Key swing factor: BEA Q1 advance estimate on April 30, alongside upcoming inflation data and FOMC May meeting, could shift the rate path and growth trajectory.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$27,102
Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«GDP growth in 2026» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 6 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «>2.5%» з 50%, далі «1.5–2.0%» з 12%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «GDP growth in 2026» згенерував $27.1K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Nov 12, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «GDP growth in 2026», перегляньте 6 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «GDP growth in 2026» — «>2.5%» з 50%. Наступний — «1.5–2.0%» з 12%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «GDP growth in 2026» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.