Incumbent Rep. Salud Carbajal's commanding position in solidly Democratic California's 24th Congressional District drives trader consensus at 93% for a Democratic hold, reflecting his consistent general election margins above 58% since 2016, including a 62.7%-37.3% victory in 2024 amid Kamala Harris's 60.9% district share. Forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by strong fundraising and minimal Republican opposition ahead of the June 2 top-two primary featuring challengers Sarah Bacon (D), Helena Pasquarella (Peace and Freedom), and Bob Smith (R). While no major developments have shifted sentiment in the past 30 days, a Republican upset would require a Carbajal scandal, unexpected national midterm wave favoring Republicans, or surge by a top GOP primary finisher.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-24 House Election Winner
CA-24 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,462 ปริมาณ
93%
Republican Party
$4,135 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Salud Carbajal's commanding position in solidly Democratic California's 24th Congressional District drives trader consensus at 93% for a Democratic hold, reflecting his consistent general election margins above 58% since 2016, including a 62.7%-37.3% victory in 2024 amid Kamala Harris's 60.9% district share. Forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by strong fundraising and minimal Republican opposition ahead of the June 2 top-two primary featuring challengers Sarah Bacon (D), Helena Pasquarella (Peace and Freedom), and Bob Smith (R). While no major developments have shifted sentiment in the past 30 days, a Republican upset would require a Carbajal scandal, unexpected national midterm wave favoring Republicans, or surge by a top GOP primary finisher.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,597วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Salud Carbajal's commanding position in solidly Democratic California's 24th Congressional District drives trader consensus at 93% for a Democratic hold, reflecting his consistent general election margins above 58% since 2016, including a 62.7%-37.3% victory in 2024 amid Kamala Harris's 60.9% district share. Forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by strong fundraising and minimal Republican opposition ahead of the June 2 top-two primary featuring challengers Sarah Bacon (D), Helena Pasquarella (Peace and Freedom), and Bob Smith (R). While no major developments have shifted sentiment in the past 30 days, a Republican upset would require a Carbajal scandal, unexpected national midterm wave favoring Republicans, or surge by a top GOP primary finisher.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,597วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Salud Carbajal's commanding position in solidly Democratic California's 24th Congressional District drives trader consensus at 93% for a Democratic hold, reflecting his consistent general election margins above 58% since 2016, including a 62.7%-37.3% victory in 2024 amid Kamala Harris's 60.9% district share. Forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by strong fundraising and minimal Republican opposition ahead of the June 2 top-two primary featuring challengers Sarah Bacon (D), Helena Pasquarella (Peace and Freedom), and Bob Smith (R). While no major developments have shifted sentiment in the past 30 days, a Republican upset would require a Carbajal scandal, unexpected national midterm wave favoring Republicans, or surge by a top GOP primary finisher.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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