Following Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa's death on January 6, 2026, California's 1st Congressional District special election—using the pre-redistricting map—features a June 2 top-two primary and August 4 general, fueling trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic winner. Early February polling showed state Sen. Mike McGuire leading at 33% among a crowded field, with Democrats Audrey Denney competitive and Republicans split between Assemblyman James Gallagher and others like Jot Thiara, raising odds of two Democrats advancing to guarantee their general victory despite the district's GOP lean. The April 15 certified candidate list and Sacramento Bee's McGuire endorsement reinforced this dynamic. A Republican hold requires GOP consolidation behind Gallagher for a primary top-two spot, aided by rural turnout in the low-profile summer race.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-01 House Election Winner
CA-01 House Election Winner
$21,980 ปริมาณ
$21,980 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
6%
$21,980 ปริมาณ
$21,980 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,151 ปริมาณ
92%
Republican Party
$7,829 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa's death on January 6, 2026, California's 1st Congressional District special election—using the pre-redistricting map—features a June 2 top-two primary and August 4 general, fueling trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic winner. Early February polling showed state Sen. Mike McGuire leading at 33% among a crowded field, with Democrats Audrey Denney competitive and Republicans split between Assemblyman James Gallagher and others like Jot Thiara, raising odds of two Democrats advancing to guarantee their general victory despite the district's GOP lean. The April 15 certified candidate list and Sacramento Bee's McGuire endorsement reinforced this dynamic. A Republican hold requires GOP consolidation behind Gallagher for a primary top-two spot, aided by rural turnout in the low-profile summer race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,980วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa's death on January 6, 2026, California's 1st Congressional District special election—using the pre-redistricting map—features a June 2 top-two primary and August 4 general, fueling trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic winner. Early February polling showed state Sen. Mike McGuire leading at 33% among a crowded field, with Democrats Audrey Denney competitive and Republicans split between Assemblyman James Gallagher and others like Jot Thiara, raising odds of two Democrats advancing to guarantee their general victory despite the district's GOP lean. The April 15 certified candidate list and Sacramento Bee's McGuire endorsement reinforced this dynamic. A Republican hold requires GOP consolidation behind Gallagher for a primary top-two spot, aided by rural turnout in the low-profile summer race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$21,980วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Following Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa's death on January 6, 2026, California's 1st Congressional District special election—using the pre-redistricting map—features a June 2 top-two primary and August 4 general, fueling trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic winner. Early February polling showed state Sen. Mike McGuire leading at 33% among a crowded field, with Democrats Audrey Denney competitive and Republicans split between Assemblyman James Gallagher and others like Jot Thiara, raising odds of two Democrats advancing to guarantee their general victory despite the district's GOP lean. The April 15 certified candidate list and Sacramento Bee's McGuire endorsement reinforced this dynamic. A Republican hold requires GOP consolidation behind Gallagher for a primary top-two spot, aided by rural turnout in the low-profile summer race.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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