Traders assign a 76.5% implied probability to no further U.S. sovereign downgrade before 2027 because Moody’s May 2025 one-notch cut to Aa1 with a stable outlook aligned all three major agencies—S&P at AA+, Fitch at AA+, and Moody’s at Aa1—below their top ratings without immediate follow-on pressure. Federal debt has climbed above $39 trillion amid persistent deficits, yet agency outlooks remain stable and no new governance or fiscal shocks have emerged to justify additional notches through year-end 2026. Market-implied odds embed the consensus that baseline debt-to-GDP trajectories and Treasury demand will not trigger rating actions absent major policy shifts, such as unresolved debt-ceiling negotiations or sharper deterioration in primary fiscal balances.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAnother US debt downgrade before 2027?
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
$10,721 ปริมาณ
$10,721 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$10,721 ปริมาณ
$10,721 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 76.5% implied probability to no further U.S. sovereign downgrade before 2027 because Moody’s May 2025 one-notch cut to Aa1 with a stable outlook aligned all three major agencies—S&P at AA+, Fitch at AA+, and Moody’s at Aa1—below their top ratings without immediate follow-on pressure. Federal debt has climbed above $39 trillion amid persistent deficits, yet agency outlooks remain stable and no new governance or fiscal shocks have emerged to justify additional notches through year-end 2026. Market-implied odds embed the consensus that baseline debt-to-GDP trajectories and Treasury demand will not trigger rating actions absent major policy shifts, such as unresolved debt-ceiling negotiations or sharper deterioration in primary fiscal balances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$10,721วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 76.5% implied probability to no further U.S. sovereign downgrade before 2027 because Moody’s May 2025 one-notch cut to Aa1 with a stable outlook aligned all three major agencies—S&P at AA+, Fitch at AA+, and Moody’s at Aa1—below their top ratings without immediate follow-on pressure. Federal debt has climbed above $39 trillion amid persistent deficits, yet agency outlooks remain stable and no new governance or fiscal shocks have emerged to justify additional notches through year-end 2026. Market-implied odds embed the consensus that baseline debt-to-GDP trajectories and Treasury demand will not trigger rating actions absent major policy shifts, such as unresolved debt-ceiling negotiations or sharper deterioration in primary fiscal balances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$10,721วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 76.5% implied probability to no further U.S. sovereign downgrade before 2027 because Moody’s May 2025 one-notch cut to Aa1 with a stable outlook aligned all three major agencies—S&P at AA+, Fitch at AA+, and Moody’s at Aa1—below their top ratings without immediate follow-on pressure. Federal debt has climbed above $39 trillion amid persistent deficits, yet agency outlooks remain stable and no new governance or fiscal shocks have emerged to justify additional notches through year-end 2026. Market-implied odds embed the consensus that baseline debt-to-GDP trajectories and Treasury demand will not trigger rating actions absent major policy shifts, such as unresolved debt-ceiling negotiations or sharper deterioration in primary fiscal balances.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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