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Мир·Израиль

Израиль начнет крупное наземное наступление в Газе...?

Market icon
Мир·Израиль

Израиль начнет крупное наземное наступление в Газе...?

$492,502 Объем

Oct 31, 2025
Polymarket

$492,502 Объем

Polymarket

31 марта 2026 года

$320,743 Объем

2%

30 июня

$8,067 Объем

16%

31 декабря

$12,806 Объем

38%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's fragile Gaza ceasefire, holding since late 2025 despite intermittent airstrikes and tunnel demolitions, drives low trader consensus for a major ground offensive by March 31. Recent diplomatic momentum centers on a Board of Peace proposal, shared days ago, urging Hamas to disarm gradually over eight months in exchange for aid and reconstruction—US envoys advanced similar truce talks in Cairo on March 17. Earlier IDF plans for a March Gaza City operation, reported in January, required Trump administration approval that has not come amid stalled hostage releases. Israel's expanded ground offensive in southern Lebanon on March 26, plus the regional war sparked by Iran's Supreme Leader's death on February 28, diverts military focus and resources, reducing near-term Gaza escalation risks unless negotiations collapse.

Israel's fragile Gaza ceasefire, holding since late 2025 despite intermittent airstrikes and tunnel demolitions, drives low trader consensus for a major ground offensive by March 31. Recent diplomatic momentum centers on a Board of Peace proposal, shared days ago, urging Hamas to disarm gradually over eight months in exchange for aid and reconstruction—US envoys advanced similar truce talks in Cairo on March 17. Earlier IDF plans for a March Gaza City operation, reported in January, required Trump administration approval that has not come amid stalled hostage releases. Israel's expanded ground offensive in southern Lebanon on March 26, plus the regional war sparked by Iran's Supreme Leader's death on February 28, diverts military focus and resources, reducing near-term Gaza escalation risks unless negotiations collapse.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's fragile Gaza ceasefire, holding since late 2025 despite intermittent airstrikes and tunnel demolitions, drives low trader consensus for a major ground offensive by March 31. Recent diplomatic momentum centers on a Board of Peace proposal, shared days ago, urging Hamas to disarm gradually over eight months in exchange for aid and reconstruction—US envoys advanced similar truce talks in Cairo on March 17. Earlier IDF plans for a March Gaza City operation, reported in January, required Trump administration approval that has not come amid stalled hostage releases. Israel's expanded ground offensive in southern Lebanon on March 26, plus the regional war sparked by Iran's Supreme Leader's death on February 28, diverts military focus and resources, reducing near-term Gaza escalation risks unless negotiations collapse.

Israel's fragile Gaza ceasefire, holding since late 2025 despite intermittent airstrikes and tunnel demolitions, drives low trader consensus for a major ground offensive by March 31. Recent diplomatic momentum centers on a Board of Peace proposal, shared days ago, urging Hamas to disarm gradually over eight months in exchange for aid and reconstruction—US envoys advanced similar truce talks in Cairo on March 17. Earlier IDF plans for a March Gaza City operation, reported in January, required Trump administration approval that has not come amid stalled hostage releases. Israel's expanded ground offensive in southern Lebanon on March 26, plus the regional war sparked by Iran's Supreme Leader's death on February 28, diverts military focus and resources, reducing near-term Gaza escalation risks unless negotiations collapse.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Израиль начнет крупное наземное наступление в Газе...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 5 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «31 декабря» с 38%, за ним следует «30 июня» с 16%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 38¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 38%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Израиль начнет крупное наземное наступление в Газе...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $492.5K с момента запуска рынка Oct 19, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Израиль начнет крупное наземное наступление в Газе...?», просмотри 5 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Израиль начнет крупное наземное наступление в Газе...?» — «31 декабря» с 38%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 38%. Следующий ближайший исход — «30 июня» с 16%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Израиль начнет крупное наземное наступление в Газе...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.