US and Israeli forces have sustained high-tempo airstrikes against Iranian military targets, nuclear sites, and arms production facilities since launching a joint campaign on February 28, 2026, anchoring trader consensus on their active involvement before the March 31 deadline. Recent escalations include new US casualties from Iranian drone and missile barrages on bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, alongside Israel's intensified focus on degrading Tehran's military-industrial base amid President Trump's reported ceasefire overtures. The UK, France, and Germany have affirmed readiness for defensive actions to neutralize Iranian missile and drone launch sites, while Saudi Arabia and UAE signal potential strikes if Iran targets their energy infrastructure. Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal to halt hostilities, as Pentagon preparations for ground operations heighten uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$10,830,269 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Саудовская Аравия
4%
ОАЭ
3%
Катар
2%
Бахрейн
2%
Иордания
1%
Великобритания
1%
Любая страна ЕС
1%
Кувейт
1%
Турция
1%
Франция
1%
Оман
1%
Канада
<1%
Германия
<1%
$10,830,269 Объем
Саудовская Аравия
$2,204,303 Объем
4%
ОАЭ
$2,851,281 Объем
3%
Катар
$946,120 Объем
2%
Бахрейн
$392,798 Объем
2%
Иордания
$189,646 Объем
1%
Великобритания
$948,389 Объем
1%
Любая страна ЕС
$472,045 Объем
1%
Кувейт
$211,626 Объем
1%
Турция
$481,794 Объем
1%
Франция
$750,278 Объем
1%
Оман
$132,053 Объем
1%
Канада
$339,302 Объем
<1%
Германия
$912,034 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces have sustained high-tempo airstrikes against Iranian military targets, nuclear sites, and arms production facilities since launching a joint campaign on February 28, 2026, anchoring trader consensus on their active involvement before the March 31 deadline. Recent escalations include new US casualties from Iranian drone and missile barrages on bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, alongside Israel's intensified focus on degrading Tehran's military-industrial base amid President Trump's reported ceasefire overtures. The UK, France, and Germany have affirmed readiness for defensive actions to neutralize Iranian missile and drone launch sites, while Saudi Arabia and UAE signal potential strikes if Iran targets their energy infrastructure. Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal to halt hostilities, as Pentagon preparations for ground operations heighten uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Объем
$10,830,269Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces have sustained high-tempo airstrikes against Iranian military targets, nuclear sites, and arms production facilities since launching a joint campaign on February 28, 2026, anchoring trader consensus on their active involvement before the March 31 deadline. Recent escalations include new US casualties from Iranian drone and missile barrages on bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, alongside Israel's intensified focus on degrading Tehran's military-industrial base amid President Trump's reported ceasefire overtures. The UK, France, and Germany have affirmed readiness for defensive actions to neutralize Iranian missile and drone launch sites, while Saudi Arabia and UAE signal potential strikes if Iran targets their energy infrastructure. Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal to halt hostilities, as Pentagon preparations for ground operations heighten uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$10,830,269Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces have sustained high-tempo airstrikes against Iranian military targets, nuclear sites, and arms production facilities since launching a joint campaign on February 28, 2026, anchoring trader consensus on their active involvement before the March 31 deadline. Recent escalations include new US casualties from Iranian drone and missile barrages on bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, alongside Israel's intensified focus on degrading Tehran's military-industrial base amid President Trump's reported ceasefire overtures. The UK, France, and Germany have affirmed readiness for defensive actions to neutralize Iranian missile and drone launch sites, while Saudi Arabia and UAE signal potential strikes if Iran targets their energy infrastructure. Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal to halt hostilities, as Pentagon preparations for ground operations heighten uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы