Recent recognitions of Palestinian statehood by Slovenia on May 30 and Armenia on June 24, following Norway, Ireland, and Spain in late May, have fueled trader consensus for additional diplomatic shifts before 2027, with over 147 UN member states now extending formal acknowledgment amid the Israel-Gaza war. This European momentum, amplified by the ICJ's July 19 advisory opinion deeming Israel's occupation unlawful, prompts bets on holdouts like France, Portugal, and Ireland's EU peers, alongside Caribbean nations such as Trinidad and Tobago. Upcoming UN General Assembly sessions in September and bilateral talks could trigger announcements, though major powers like the US and UK remain improbable without policy reversals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$38,126 Объем

Соединённые Штаты
7%

Италия
15%

Нидерланды
19%

Япония
16%

Германия
8%

Бельгия
34%

Финляндия
11%

Австрия
13%

Греция
8%

Новая Зеландия
24%
$38,126 Объем

Соединённые Штаты
7%

Италия
15%

Нидерланды
19%

Япония
16%

Германия
8%

Бельгия
34%

Финляндия
11%

Австрия
13%

Греция
8%

Новая Зеландия
24%
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 11:52 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent recognitions of Palestinian statehood by Slovenia on May 30 and Armenia on June 24, following Norway, Ireland, and Spain in late May, have fueled trader consensus for additional diplomatic shifts before 2027, with over 147 UN member states now extending formal acknowledgment amid the Israel-Gaza war. This European momentum, amplified by the ICJ's July 19 advisory opinion deeming Israel's occupation unlawful, prompts bets on holdouts like France, Portugal, and Ireland's EU peers, alongside Caribbean nations such as Trinidad and Tobago. Upcoming UN General Assembly sessions in September and bilateral talks could trigger announcements, though major powers like the US and UK remain improbable without policy reversals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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