No formal US-Iran hostilities exist to warrant a ceasefire, with trader consensus reflecting persistent proxy confrontations involving Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, militias in Iraq and Syria, and support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. Recent US airstrikes on Houthi targets—continuing into late November amid Red Sea shipping threats—signal sustained military pressure without de-escalation signals. Indirect nuclear talks via Oman stalled months ago, and President-elect Trump's pledged resumption of maximum pressure sanctions further lowers agreement odds. Watch for proxy ceasefires, diplomatic breakthroughs, or policy announcements from the incoming administration ahead of the market's resolution date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСША x Иран прекращение огня...?
США x Иран прекращение огня...?
$53,060,523 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
31 марта
5%
7 апреля
14%
15 апреля
27%
30 апреля
38%
31 мая
53%
30 июня
61%
31 декабря
76%
$53,060,523 Объем
31 марта
$33,348,659 Объем
5%
7 апреля
$613,525 Объем
14%
15 апреля
$5,049,917 Объем
27%
30 апреля
$5,851,159 Объем
38%
31 мая
$2,101,327 Объем
53%
30 июня
$2,202,770 Объем
61%
31 декабря
$444,448 Объем
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.No formal US-Iran hostilities exist to warrant a ceasefire, with trader consensus reflecting persistent proxy confrontations involving Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, militias in Iraq and Syria, and support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. Recent US airstrikes on Houthi targets—continuing into late November amid Red Sea shipping threats—signal sustained military pressure without de-escalation signals. Indirect nuclear talks via Oman stalled months ago, and President-elect Trump's pledged resumption of maximum pressure sanctions further lowers agreement odds. Watch for proxy ceasefires, diplomatic breakthroughs, or policy announcements from the incoming administration ahead of the market's resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Открытие рынка: Mar 12, 2026, 5:31 PM ET
Объем
$53,060,523Открытие рынка
Mar 12, 2026, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.No formal US-Iran hostilities exist to warrant a ceasefire, with trader consensus reflecting persistent proxy confrontations involving Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, militias in Iraq and Syria, and support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. Recent US airstrikes on Houthi targets—continuing into late November amid Red Sea shipping threats—signal sustained military pressure without de-escalation signals. Indirect nuclear talks via Oman stalled months ago, and President-elect Trump's pledged resumption of maximum pressure sanctions further lowers agreement odds. Watch for proxy ceasefires, diplomatic breakthroughs, or policy announcements from the incoming administration ahead of the market's resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Объем
$53,060,523Открытие рынка
Mar 12, 2026, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No formal US-Iran hostilities exist to warrant a ceasefire, with trader consensus reflecting persistent proxy confrontations involving Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, militias in Iraq and Syria, and support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. Recent US airstrikes on Houthi targets—continuing into late November amid Red Sea shipping threats—signal sustained military pressure without de-escalation signals. Indirect nuclear talks via Oman stalled months ago, and President-elect Trump's pledged resumption of maximum pressure sanctions further lowers agreement odds. Watch for proxy ceasefires, diplomatic breakthroughs, or policy announcements from the incoming administration ahead of the market's resolution date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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