US-Iran ceasefire negotiations remain stalled amid ongoing military strikes and hardened positions, with Tehran rejecting Washington's 15-point proposal delivered via intermediaries like Pakistan while submitting its own counteroffer demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump's extension of a March 27 deadline for de-escalation and Secretary of State comments today signaling a potential resolution in weeks—not months—reflect recent diplomatic overtures following UN Security Council Resolution 2817 condemning Iranian missile attacks on Gulf states earlier this month. No agreement has materialized despite indirect talks, as Iran vows relentless retaliation and the US asserts core objectives largely met, leaving traders focused on imminent envoy meetings and escalation risks before any truce.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСША x Иран прекращение огня...?
США x Иран прекращение огня...?
$56,921,337 Объем
Apr 15, 2026
31 марта
2%
7 апреля
11%
15 апреля
22%
30 апреля
39%
31 мая
54%
30 июня
63%
31 декабря
76%
$56,921,337 Объем
31 марта
$35,960,767 Объем
2%
7 апреля
$909,943 Объем
11%
15 апреля
$5,513,907 Объем
22%
30 апреля
$6,173,125 Объем
39%
31 мая
$2,167,202 Объем
54%
30 июня
$2,239,902 Объем
63%
31 декабря
$462,591 Объем
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.US-Iran ceasefire negotiations remain stalled amid ongoing military strikes and hardened positions, with Tehran rejecting Washington's 15-point proposal delivered via intermediaries like Pakistan while submitting its own counteroffer demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump's extension of a March 27 deadline for de-escalation and Secretary of State comments today signaling a potential resolution in weeks—not months—reflect recent diplomatic overtures following UN Security Council Resolution 2817 condemning Iranian missile attacks on Gulf states earlier this month. No agreement has materialized despite indirect talks, as Iran vows relentless retaliation and the US asserts core objectives largely met, leaving traders focused on imminent envoy meetings and escalation risks before any truce.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Открытие рынка: Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
Объем
$56,921,337Открытие рынка
Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.US-Iran ceasefire negotiations remain stalled amid ongoing military strikes and hardened positions, with Tehran rejecting Washington's 15-point proposal delivered via intermediaries like Pakistan while submitting its own counteroffer demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump's extension of a March 27 deadline for de-escalation and Secretary of State comments today signaling a potential resolution in weeks—not months—reflect recent diplomatic overtures following UN Security Council Resolution 2817 condemning Iranian missile attacks on Gulf states earlier this month. No agreement has materialized despite indirect talks, as Iran vows relentless retaliation and the US asserts core objectives largely met, leaving traders focused on imminent envoy meetings and escalation risks before any truce.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Объем
$56,921,337Открытие рынка
Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran ceasefire negotiations remain stalled amid ongoing military strikes and hardened positions, with Tehran rejecting Washington's 15-point proposal delivered via intermediaries like Pakistan while submitting its own counteroffer demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump's extension of a March 27 deadline for de-escalation and Secretary of State comments today signaling a potential resolution in weeks—not months—reflect recent diplomatic overtures following UN Security Council Resolution 2817 condemning Iranian missile attacks on Gulf states earlier this month. No agreement has materialized despite indirect talks, as Iran vows relentless retaliation and the US asserts core objectives largely met, leaving traders focused on imminent envoy meetings and escalation risks before any truce.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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