Trader consensus favors a 2026 US trade deficit of $800–900 billion at 35.5%, reflecting early-year narrowing from aggressive tariffs under the Trump administration, which cut the goods and services gap 55% in January–February versus 2025 amid higher import duties and reshoring incentives. February's deficit widened 4.9% to $57.3 billion per Commerce Department data released April 2, yet the 12-month rolling total through then stood at $776 billion—below recent peaks—prompting bets on moderation rather than contraction below $700 billion (12.5%) or expansion beyond $1 trillion (11.5%). Strong dollar pressures, consumer imports, and tariff revenue gains temper optimism for deeper cuts, with March data pending as a key catalyst.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$19,216 Объем
$19,216 Объем
28 фев. 2027 г.
<500 млрд
8%
500–600 млрд
3%
600–700 млрд
7%
700–800 млрд
13%
800–900 млрд
36%
900 млрд – 1 трлн
25%
1–1,1 трлн
11%
1,1 трлн+
8%
$19,216 Объем
$19,216 Объем
28 фев. 2027 г.
<500 млрд
$16,427 Объем
8%
500–600 млрд
$225 Объем
3%
600–700 млрд
$244 Объем
7%
700–800 млрд
$289 Объем
13%
800–900 млрд
$570 Объем
36%
900 млрд – 1 трлн
$765 Объем
25%
1–1,1 трлн
$239 Объем
11%
1,1 трлн+
$457 Объем
8%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus favors a 2026 US trade deficit of $800–900 billion at 35.5%, reflecting early-year narrowing from aggressive tariffs under the Trump administration, which cut the goods and services gap 55% in January–February versus 2025 amid higher import duties and reshoring incentives. February's deficit widened 4.9% to $57.3 billion per Commerce Department data released April 2, yet the 12-month rolling total through then stood at $776 billion—below recent peaks—prompting bets on moderation rather than contraction below $700 billion (12.5%) or expansion beyond $1 trillion (11.5%). Strong dollar pressures, consumer imports, and tariff revenue gains temper optimism for deeper cuts, with March data pending as a key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Объем
$19,216Дата окончания
28 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus favors a 2026 US trade deficit of $800–900 billion at 35.5%, reflecting early-year narrowing from aggressive tariffs under the Trump administration, which cut the goods and services gap 55% in January–February versus 2025 amid higher import duties and reshoring incentives. February's deficit widened 4.9% to $57.3 billion per Commerce Department data released April 2, yet the 12-month rolling total through then stood at $776 billion—below recent peaks—prompting bets on moderation rather than contraction below $700 billion (12.5%) or expansion beyond $1 trillion (11.5%). Strong dollar pressures, consumer imports, and tariff revenue gains temper optimism for deeper cuts, with March data pending as a key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Объем
$19,216Дата окончания
28 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a 2026 US trade deficit of $800–900 billion at 35.5%, reflecting early-year narrowing from aggressive tariffs under the Trump administration, which cut the goods and services gap 55% in January–February versus 2025 amid higher import duties and reshoring incentives. February's deficit widened 4.9% to $57.3 billion per Commerce Department data released April 2, yet the 12-month rolling total through then stood at $776 billion—below recent peaks—prompting bets on moderation rather than contraction below $700 billion (12.5%) or expansion beyond $1 trillion (11.5%). Strong dollar pressures, consumer imports, and tariff revenue gains temper optimism for deeper cuts, with March data pending as a key catalyst.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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