Trader consensus prices "No" at 77.5% implied probability on U.S. recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027, reflecting persistent non-recognition policy despite Trump administration proposals floated in 2025 peace talks. Reports from April to November 2025 indicated openness to conceding Crimea in a Ukraine-Russia framework, but no formal State Department action followed amid bipartisan congressional pushback, including S.1749 (119th Congress) explicitly barring such recognition of forcibly seized Ukrainian territory. Recent February 2026 statements from Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Foreign Minister Sybiha denounced potential U.S.-Russia bilateral deals affecting sovereignty as legally void, reinforcing international law commitments like the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. With ongoing diplomacy stalled and legislative hurdles intact, traders see significant barriers to reversal before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$13,923 Объем
$13,923 Объем
Да
$13,923 Объем
$13,923 Объем
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 77.5% implied probability on U.S. recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027, reflecting persistent non-recognition policy despite Trump administration proposals floated in 2025 peace talks. Reports from April to November 2025 indicated openness to conceding Crimea in a Ukraine-Russia framework, but no formal State Department action followed amid bipartisan congressional pushback, including S.1749 (119th Congress) explicitly barring such recognition of forcibly seized Ukrainian territory. Recent February 2026 statements from Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Foreign Minister Sybiha denounced potential U.S.-Russia bilateral deals affecting sovereignty as legally void, reinforcing international law commitments like the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. With ongoing diplomacy stalled and legislative hurdles intact, traders see significant barriers to reversal before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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