Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76% implied probability against US federal charges for Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel, primarily due to the complete absence of any Department of Justice announcements, indictments, or grand jury activity targeting him. US policy toward Cuba has long emphasized economic sanctions on regime-linked entities and officials—such as recent Treasury actions against military firms—but stops short of personal prosecutions of sitting foreign leaders, respecting norms of head-of-state immunity. No credible reports or official statements indicate momentum toward charges, with recent news focusing instead on bilateral tensions over migration and protests rather than criminal referrals. This stasis aligns with historical precedents where such extraordinary steps remain untested against adversarial heads of state.