OpenAI, the artificial intelligence company behind the ChatGPT large language model, has accelerated IPO preparations by engaging Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to draft confidential filing documents, with reports indicating a potential September 2026 debut at valuations up to $1 trillion. This follows informal banker discussions and executive hires focused on investor relations, amid competitive pressure from rival Anthropic, which is also advancing its own late-2026 listing plans. Persistent heavy losses and the need to meet public company reporting standards introduce uncertainty, while broader market appetite for pure-play AI stocks and favorable conditions could influence timing. Key upcoming catalysts include any formal regulatory submissions or updates on Sam Altman's stated targets.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоMarket speculation grows on OpenAI IPO timing amid Anthropic filing
December 31, 2026 jumps to 46%7%
Following Anthropic's IPO filing, market speculation increased about OpenAI's IPO timing, with traders adjusting expectations and prices reflecting uncertainty but continued confidence in a late 2026 IPO.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO competition
Anthropic, a major AI rival to OpenAI, confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO on June 1, 2026, signaling a competitive race in AI public offerings. This development influenced market perceptions of OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation prospects, as both companies targeted late 2026 listings.
Rival Anthropic files confidentially for U.S. IPO
September 30, 2026 dips to 35%3%
Anthropic officially filed for its own IPO shortly after OpenAI's filing, intensifying the race for public capital among major AI firms.
Anthropic Files Confidential IPO Paperwork, Intensifying Race with OpenAI
September 30, 2026 jumps to 39%6%
OpenAI's chief rival Anthropic filed its confidential draft S-1 on June 1, 2026, turning the rivalry into a race to see which AI giant would debut on Wall Street first.
Anthropic Confidentially Files for US IPO, Stepping Up Race with OpenAI
September 30, 2026 jumps to 39%6%
Rival AI firm Anthropic filed its own confidential IPO paperwork, intensifying the race to go public in late 2026 and keeping pressure on OpenAI's timeline.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO race with OpenAI
Anthropic filed confidentially for a U.S. IPO, increasing competitive pressure on OpenAI and highlighting the crowded AI IPO market expected in late 2026.
Rival AI Giant Anthropic Confidentially Files for U.S. IPO
September 30, 2026 jumps to 43%5%
Anthropic filed its own confidential IPO paperwork, intensifying the race for public capital and keeping pressure on OpenAI's late 2026 timeline, which caused fluctuations in the September 30, 2026 option.
Market analysis highlights OpenAI's financial challenges ahead of IPO
December 31, 2026 jumps to 76%6%
By late May 2026, analysts highlighted OpenAI's significant financial losses and a $207 billion funding gap through 2030, raising concerns about IPO timing and valuation. This analysis contributed to market volatility and skepticism about earlier IPO dates.
OpenAI launches $4 billion OpenAI Deployment Company to accelerate enterprise AI adoption
December 31, 2026 surges to 75%47%
OpenAI announced the launch of a new $4 billion subsidiary to help organizations deploy AI systems, signaling strategic expansion and operational scaling ahead of its IPO, positively influencing market sentiment about the company's growth prospects.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
OpenAI officially confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, targeting a Q4 2026 public listing at a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the deal.
OpenAI Confidentially Files S-1 IPO Prospectus with the SEC
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%43%
OpenAI officially submitted its confidential S-1 draft registration statement to the SEC, kicking off the formal process for a late 2026 listing and solidifying the Q4/December 31 target.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus targeting Q4 2026 debut
September 30, 2026 surges to 44%17%
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, aiming for a Q4 2026 public listing with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. The filing marked a significant step toward the IPO but revealed ongoing financial losses and the possibility of a delayed public debut if SEC review raises issues.
OpenAI files confidential S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC
August 31, 2026 drops to 6%8%
OpenAI officially submitted its confidential S-1 filing, targeting a late 2026 public listing. This solidified the timeline for late 2026 and collapsed the odds for earlier summer dates.
OpenAI Prepares Confidential IPO Filing Targeting September Debut
August 31, 2026 plunges to 13%33%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential draft prospectus for an IPO as early as September 2026. This news made earlier summer timelines highly unlikely, causing July and August options to collapse.
OpenAI IPO Reports Collapse Shorter-Term July and August Targets
August 31, 2026 plunges to 14%32%
With reports indicating OpenAI was targeting a September or Q4 2026 public debut, shorter-term options like July 31 and August 31 collapsed as they became highly unlikely.
OpenAI Prepares Confidential IPO Filing Targeting September Debut
December 31, 2026 surges to 70%42%
Major news outlets reported that OpenAI is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to confidentially file for an IPO as early as September or Q4 2026. This shifted market expectations heavily toward a late 2026 timeline, causing the December 31, 2026 option to skyrocket while earlier dates plummeted.
Reports of September IPO Target Push Out Odds for Earlier Summer Dates
August 31, 2026 plunges to 14%32%
The revelation that OpenAI was targeting a September 2026 public debut made earlier summer timelines highly unlikely, causing the July and August contract prices to collapse.
OpenAI Prepares to Confidentially File for IPO Targeting September Debut
December 31, 2026 surges to 72%44%
Reports emerged from major news outlets that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to file a confidential IPO prospectus, aiming for a public debut as early as September 2026.
OpenAI prepares to confidentially file IPO prospectus, targeting September debut
Multiple sources including CNBC, Reuters, and The New York Times reported OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, aiming for a public debut in September 2026 with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters.
OpenAI aims for speedy IPO filing soon, targeting September debut
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%4%
Sources confirmed OpenAI's plan to file a draft IPO prospectus soon, aiming for a September public debut, intensifying market expectations and competitive positioning against rivals like Anthropic and SpaceX.
Reports emerge that OpenAI plans confidential IPO filing
September 30, 2026 rises to 52%2%
Media reports revealed that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to file a confidential draft prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September.
Reports of OpenAI confidential IPO filing imminent
December 31, 2026 surges to 74%47%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus, with filings possibly as soon as that week. This news caused a sharp increase in market confidence for IPO dates in late 2026, especially December 31, 2026, as traders anticipated a public offering soon.
Federal Jury Dismisses Elon Musk's Lawsuit Against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 jumps to 35%5%
A federal jury in Oakland threw out Elon Musk's lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, removing a major legal cloud and clearing a significant hurdle for OpenAI's IPO plans.
Jury dismisses Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI
December 31, 2026 surges to 75%48%
A federal jury threw out Elon Musk's lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, removing a major legal cloud and opening the window for IPO preparations.
Federal Jury Dismisses Elon Musk's Lawsuit Against OpenAI
A federal jury in Oakland rejected Elon Musk's lawsuit seeking to dismantle OpenAI's for-profit structure. This cleared a major legal hurdle and paved the way for OpenAI to proceed with its public listing plans.
OpenAI launches $4 billion AI deployment company and acquires Tomoro
December 31, 2026 rises to 29%2%
OpenAI announced the launch of the OpenAI Deployment Company with $4 billion investment and acquired AI consulting firm Tomoro to scale AI deployment. This move signaled OpenAI's readiness for enterprise expansion, supporting expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI launches $4 billion AI deployment company and acquires Tomoro
OpenAI announced the formation of the OpenAI Deployment Company with $4 billion in investment and acquired AI consulting firm Tomoro to scale AI deployment, signaling readiness for enterprise expansion ahead of its IPO.
OpenAI forms OpenAI Deployment Company and acquires Tomoro
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
In May, OpenAI launched a new joint venture with $4 billion investment and acquired Tomoro to scale AI deployment, signaling readiness for enterprise expansion and supporting expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
Congressional investigation and employee secondary sales raise IPO risks
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%5%
Reports emerged of a formal Congressional investigation into CEO Sam Altman's investments and $6.6 billion in employee secondary share sales, increasing regulatory and governance risks ahead of the IPO. This contributed to further market price declines.
OpenAI launches $4 billion deployment company to aid enterprise AI adoption
OpenAI announced the creation of the OpenAI Deployment Company with a $4 billion initial investment and acquisition of AI consulting firm Tomoro. This move emphasized enterprise focus but did not advance IPO timing, reflecting ongoing operational expansion.
Market skepticism grows over OpenAI IPO timing amid rival Anthropic's progress
December 31, 2026 dips to 26%1%
Market sentiment turned more cautious as rival Anthropic pursued its own IPO plans for late 2026, and OpenAI's lack of filing fueled doubts about a 2026 IPO, reflected in declining market prices for June and December 2026 outcomes.
No IPO filing or date announced despite strong revenue and funding
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
As of early May 2026, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 or announced an IPO date, despite generating $25 billion annualized revenue and preparing bankers, causing market confidence in a mid-2026 IPO to decline sharply.
No confirmed IPO date as OpenAI focuses on private funding and growth
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
As of early May 2026, OpenAI had not filed for an IPO or announced a date, continuing to raise private capital and grow revenues, leading to a sharp decline in market confidence for a June 30, 2026 IPO.
OpenAI has no public S-1 filing or confirmed IPO date as of early May 2026
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Despite strong revenue and funding, OpenAI had not filed an S-1 registration statement or announced an IPO date by early May 2026, signaling delays and uncertainty about the IPO timeline, which depressed market prices.
Microsoft and OpenAI amend partnership to remove exclusive cloud terms
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%10%
The companies updated their partnership, allowing OpenAI to serve products across any cloud provider and restructuring revenue-sharing mechanics, making OpenAI easier to value as a standalone business.
OpenAI revises Microsoft partnership with capped revenue share
OpenAI and Microsoft agreed to cap revenue share payments in late April, clarifying financial arrangements and reducing structural risks ahead of IPO preparations, which influenced market confidence.
OpenAI and Microsoft cap revenue share payments amid partnership strain
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%2%
OpenAI and Microsoft agreed to cap revenue share payments through 2030, indicating some strain in their partnership. This development raised questions about OpenAI's financial strategy ahead of an IPO, contributing to market caution.
OpenAI converts to public benefit corporation, removing IPO structural barriers
December 31, 2026 rises to 37%2%
In April 2026, OpenAI's conversion to a public benefit corporation eliminated nonprofit-related IPO obstacles, signaling readiness for public markets and supporting expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI acquires personal finance startup Hiro
The acquisition of Hiro Finance in mid-April expanded OpenAI's fintech capabilities, indicating diversification and growth but not directly affecting IPO timing, contributing to steady market sentiment.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar signals IPO delay concerns amid financial scrutiny
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%11%
CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about OpenAI's readiness for a 2026 IPO, citing cash burn and revenue trajectory issues. Her caution contrasted with CEO Sam Altman's push for a 2026 listing, causing market uncertainty and price declines.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar discusses compute constraints and Microsoft partnership
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%5%
In an interview, CFO Sarah Friar highlighted ongoing challenges and strategic partnerships, emphasizing that an IPO was not the company's current focus, which tempered market expectations for a near-term IPO.
OpenAI CFO confirms retail investor share allocation for IPO
CFO Sarah Friar stated OpenAI will reserve shares for retail investors in its IPO, signaling preparation progress but without confirming timing, maintaining market caution on a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO announces allocation of IPO shares to retail investors
December 31, 2026 drops to 32%5%
CFO Sarah Friar stated OpenAI will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling preparation for a public offering. However, she did not confirm a timeline, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the IPO date.
OpenAI acquires streaming show TBPN to influence AI narrative
OpenAI's acquisition of TBPN in early April was a strategic marketing move to shape public perception of AI, reflecting broader corporate positioning ahead of IPO but with limited direct impact on IPO timing.
OpenAI converts to public benefit corporation, removing IPO structural barriers
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
OpenAI's April 2026 conversion to a public benefit corporation removed nonprofit-related barriers to going public, facilitating a traditional IPO. This structural change was a key step toward a potential late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI acquires tech podcast TBPN to expand influence
December 31, 2026 rises to 39%4%
OpenAI acquired TBPN, a tech podcast, to broaden its reach and influence, indicating ongoing strategic moves but no direct impact on IPO timing, coinciding with continued market uncertainty.
SpaceX files confidential S-1, intensifying 2026 mega-IPO pipeline
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing and planned June 2026 roadshow highlighted the competitive IPO environment, indirectly affecting OpenAI's market by increasing pressure and investor focus on mega tech IPOs in 2026.
OpenAI announces $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
OpenAI disclosed a massive $122 billion funding round with an $852 billion post-money valuation, signaling strong private market support but no confirmed IPO date, which initially boosted market optimism for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 surges to 43%17%
OpenAI raised $122 billion in a historic funding round, boosting its valuation to $852 billion and signaling strong investor confidence. This large capital raise supported the company's growth and IPO ambitions, temporarily increasing market optimism.
OpenAI Closes Record-Breaking $122 Billion Funding Round at $852 Billion Valuation
December 31, 2026 rises to 39%4%
OpenAI finalized its massive Series G funding round, co-led by SoftBank, which reduced immediate pressure for a public listing but solidified its path toward a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 drops to 40%9%
OpenAI raised $122 billion in the largest private funding round in Silicon Valley history, pushing valuation to $852 billion. This massive capital infusion increased runway but also suggested the IPO might be delayed as the company secured private funding.
OpenAI Preps for IPO in 2026 with Focus on Enterprise Productivity
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%3%
Reports confirmed that OpenAI is gearing up for a potential IPO that could land as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026, while aggressively orienting ChatGPT toward high-productivity enterprise use cases.
OpenAI prepares for IPO in late 2026 amid enterprise growth focus
December 31, 2026 rises to 40%2%
CNBC reported OpenAI is gearing up for a potential IPO in Q4 2026, focusing on enterprise revenue growth and clearer spending targets, which briefly boosted market optimism for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO as ChatGPT pivots to enterprise applications
OpenAI publicly indicated a strategic shift focusing on enterprise customers and preparing for a Q4 2026 IPO, reinforcing market expectations for a late-year public offering.
OpenAI Preps for Potential 2026 IPO with Renewed Focus on Enterprise Business
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
Reports indicated that OpenAI is gearing up for a potential IPO that could land as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026, while shifting its focus toward enterprise productivity tools.
OpenAI renews focus on enterprise amid IPO preparations
December 31, 2026 jumps to 39%5%
Reports in March 2026 indicated OpenAI was preparing for a potential IPO later that year while emphasizing enterprise growth and clearer spending targets, which briefly boosted market optimism for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI acquires AI security platform Promptfoo
OpenAI's acquisition of Promptfoo in early March enhanced its AI security capabilities, signaling operational scaling but not directly impacting IPO timing, thus having moderate market influence.
OpenAI acquires cybersecurity startup Promptfoo to secure AI agents
The acquisition of Promptfoo in March 2026 demonstrated OpenAI's focus on securing its AI agent ecosystem, indicating continued growth and investment but no immediate IPO announcement, sustaining market uncertainty.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%12%
OpenAI announced a massive funding round in late February, boosting its valuation and signaling strong financial backing ahead of a potential IPO, which increased market confidence in a late 2026 listing.
OpenAI announces $110 billion funding round at $730 billion valuation
December 31, 2026 surges to 53%21%
OpenAI disclosed a massive funding round including investments from Amazon, NVIDIA, and SoftBank, raising $110 billion at a $730 billion valuation. This large capital raise indicated strong investor support but also highlighted the company's ongoing cash needs, affecting IPO timing expectations.
OpenAI raises $110 billion at $730 billion valuation in largest private funding round
December 31, 2026 surges to 55%23%
OpenAI secured $110 billion in new investment, including $50 billion from Amazon, pushing its valuation to $730 billion. This massive funding round underscored the company's capital needs and delayed urgency for an IPO.
OpenAI acquires OpenClaw to enhance AI agent capabilities
December 31, 2026 drops to 42%5%
OpenAI's acquisition of OpenClaw and hiring of its founder signaled strategic investment in AI agent technology, reflecting ongoing growth but also significant capital deployment, which may have tempered IPO enthusiasm.
OpenAI acquires OpenClaw, signaling shift to AI agents
December 31, 2026 rises to 42%1%
OpenAI's acquisition of OpenClaw and hiring of its creator indicated a strategic pivot towards AI agents and workflow orchestration, reflecting ongoing innovation but no direct IPO timing confirmation, maintaining market caution.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO readiness concerns and spending risks
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar expressed doubts about OpenAI being ready for a 2026 IPO due to spending commitments and uncertain revenue growth, contributing to further market price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
Reports highlight OpenAI's potential 2026 IPO amid AI market excitement
News coverage in mid-January emphasized OpenAI as a leading AI company likely to pursue an IPO in 2026, fueling market optimism and contributing to early price increases for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI acquires health-care tech startup Torch for $60 million
OpenAI's acquisition of Torch and other strategic moves in early 2026 signaled ongoing investment and expansion, but also highlighted the company's focus on growth over immediate IPO plans, contributing to market uncertainty.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
Elon Musk's federal lawsuit alleging misconduct by OpenAI's leadership was dismissed due to delay in filing, removing a significant legal risk for OpenAI's IPO plans. This dismissal improved market sentiment, particularly for longer-term IPO dates, as legal uncertainties diminished.
Secondary share sales imply OpenAI valuation exceeding $500 billion
June 30, 2026 plunges to 9%38%
Secondary sales in late 2025 implied valuations around $500 billion, tempering some IPO enthusiasm and causing a sharp drop in the June 30, 2026 outcome price, reflecting doubts about a near-term IPO.
OpenAI IPO Odds Collapse as No Near-Term Public Listing Materializes
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%36%
At the start of the analysis window, the market experienced a sharp downward correction. The June 30, 2026 option plummeted by 36 points as traders realized that despite ongoing speculation, there was no official timeline or S-1 filing planned for the near term.
OpenAI Reportedly Lays Groundwork for Trillion-Dollar IPO as Early as Late 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%37%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI is considering filing for an IPO as soon as the second half of 2026, though CFO Sarah Friar suggested 2027 might be more realistic. This news pushed expectations away from an early 2026 debut toward late 2026 or 2027.
OpenAI restructures as Public Benefit Corporation enabling IPO
December 31, 2026 dips to 34%4%
OpenAI converted from a nonprofit-controlled capped-profit entity into a Public Benefit Corporation in October 2025, removing structural barriers to a traditional IPO and signaling serious intent to go public.
OpenAI CFO signals possible 2027 IPO, some advisers suggest late 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%11%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar indicated a 2027 IPO target, but some advisers predicted a possible late 2026 listing, creating mixed market expectations and contributing to price volatility across outcomes.
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