OpenAI’s rapid post-GPT-5.5 cadence, combined with a May 2026 canary leak of a GPT-5.6 routing entry in Codex backend logs, is the main catalyst pushing trader sentiment toward a June release. Internal checkpoints such as kindle-alpha have surfaced in developer discussions, showing early gains in reasoning, coding, and extended context handling for large codebases. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 and Claude 5 family, alongside recent GPT-5.5 Instant updates, reinforces expectations of an accelerated timeline. Prediction markets currently price an 80-89% chance of public availability by June 30, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on leaks rather than official confirmation. Key watchpoints include any system-card drop, API rollout signals, or announcements tied to upcoming earnings or developer events that could shift resolution thresholds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоGPT-5.6 released by...?
GPT-5.6 released by...?
$986,190 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
June 30
79%
23 июня
12%
July 31
95%
$986,190 Объем
June 30
$135,065 Объем
79%
23 июня
$13,842 Объем
12%
July 31
$211,871 Объем
95%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s rapid post-GPT-5.5 cadence, combined with a May 2026 canary leak of a GPT-5.6 routing entry in Codex backend logs, is the main catalyst pushing trader sentiment toward a June release. Internal checkpoints such as kindle-alpha have surfaced in developer discussions, showing early gains in reasoning, coding, and extended context handling for large codebases. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 and Claude 5 family, alongside recent GPT-5.5 Instant updates, reinforces expectations of an accelerated timeline. Prediction markets currently price an 80-89% chance of public availability by June 30, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on leaks rather than official confirmation. Key watchpoints include any system-card drop, API rollout signals, or announcements tied to upcoming earnings or developer events that could shift resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Apr 28, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
Объем
$986,190Дата окончания
31 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s rapid post-GPT-5.5 cadence, combined with a May 2026 canary leak of a GPT-5.6 routing entry in Codex backend logs, is the main catalyst pushing trader sentiment toward a June release. Internal checkpoints such as kindle-alpha have surfaced in developer discussions, showing early gains in reasoning, coding, and extended context handling for large codebases. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 and Claude 5 family, alongside recent GPT-5.5 Instant updates, reinforces expectations of an accelerated timeline. Prediction markets currently price an 80-89% chance of public availability by June 30, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on leaks rather than official confirmation. Key watchpoints include any system-card drop, API rollout signals, or announcements tied to upcoming earnings or developer events that could shift resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$986,190Дата окончания
31 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s rapid post-GPT-5.5 cadence, combined with a May 2026 canary leak of a GPT-5.6 routing entry in Codex backend logs, is the main catalyst pushing trader sentiment toward a June release. Internal checkpoints such as kindle-alpha have surfaced in developer discussions, showing early gains in reasoning, coding, and extended context handling for large codebases. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 and Claude 5 family, alongside recent GPT-5.5 Instant updates, reinforces expectations of an accelerated timeline. Prediction markets currently price an 80-89% chance of public availability by June 30, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on leaks rather than official confirmation. Key watchpoints include any system-card drop, API rollout signals, or announcements tied to upcoming earnings or developer events that could shift resolution thresholds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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