OpenAI’s rapid post-GPT-5.5 cadence, combined with a May Codex backend leak showing GPT-5.6 routing entries, is the main driver behind elevated trader expectations for a mid-to-late June public release. GPT-5.5 launched April 23 and received style and personalization updates through May, yet remains the only officially supported frontier model as of June 15. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5 has intensified speculation that OpenAI will accelerate its next iteration to defend API share and benchmark leadership. Prediction markets currently price a June 30 release above 75 percent implied probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on the typical six-to-eight-week gap between major GPT-5.x drops. Key near-term catalysts include any official system card, API naming confirmation, or developer-event timing that could resolve the market or trigger last-minute repricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоGPT-5.6 released by...?
GPT-5.6 released by...?
$946,576 Объем
15 июн. 2026 г.
June 15
1%
June 30
81%
23 июня
20%
July 31
95%
$946,576 Объем
June 15
$248,331 Объем
1%
June 30
$129,584 Объем
81%
23 июня
$11,361 Объем
20%
July 31
$209,464 Объем
95%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s rapid post-GPT-5.5 cadence, combined with a May Codex backend leak showing GPT-5.6 routing entries, is the main driver behind elevated trader expectations for a mid-to-late June public release. GPT-5.5 launched April 23 and received style and personalization updates through May, yet remains the only officially supported frontier model as of June 15. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5 has intensified speculation that OpenAI will accelerate its next iteration to defend API share and benchmark leadership. Prediction markets currently price a June 30 release above 75 percent implied probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on the typical six-to-eight-week gap between major GPT-5.x drops. Key near-term catalysts include any official system card, API naming confirmation, or developer-event timing that could resolve the market or trigger last-minute repricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 10:22 AM ET
Объем
$946,576Дата окончания
31 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 10:22 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s rapid post-GPT-5.5 cadence, combined with a May Codex backend leak showing GPT-5.6 routing entries, is the main driver behind elevated trader expectations for a mid-to-late June public release. GPT-5.5 launched April 23 and received style and personalization updates through May, yet remains the only officially supported frontier model as of June 15. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5 has intensified speculation that OpenAI will accelerate its next iteration to defend API share and benchmark leadership. Prediction markets currently price a June 30 release above 75 percent implied probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on the typical six-to-eight-week gap between major GPT-5.x drops. Key near-term catalysts include any official system card, API naming confirmation, or developer-event timing that could resolve the market or trigger last-minute repricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$946,576Дата окончания
31 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 10:22 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s rapid post-GPT-5.5 cadence, combined with a May Codex backend leak showing GPT-5.6 routing entries, is the main driver behind elevated trader expectations for a mid-to-late June public release. GPT-5.5 launched April 23 and received style and personalization updates through May, yet remains the only officially supported frontier model as of June 15. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 and Fable 5 has intensified speculation that OpenAI will accelerate its next iteration to defend API share and benchmark leadership. Prediction markets currently price a June 30 release above 75 percent implied probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on the typical six-to-eight-week gap between major GPT-5.x drops. Key near-term catalysts include any official system card, API naming confirmation, or developer-event timing that could resolve the market or trigger last-minute repricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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