Trader consensus prices military action against Iran continuing through March 31 at 95%, reflecting sustained US-Israeli airstrikes, including Israel's March 27 attacks on major nuclear and industrial sites in Iran, which signal ongoing escalation in the conflict that erupted February 28 with strikes killing Iran's supreme leader. Secretary of State Rubio indicated the campaign will last weeks, not months, without US ground troops, while President Trump paused only energy sector strikes until April 6 amid peace talks following a US 15-point proposal sent March 24. Over 300 US soldiers recently wounded highlight persistent operations. Realistic challenges include a sudden ceasefire from negotiations or de-escalation signals, absent amid current hostilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоВоенные действия до 31 марта 96%
31 марта 1.4%
30 марта 1.3%
29 марта <1%
$2,727,865 Объем
$2,727,865 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
29 марта
<1%
30 марта
1%
31 марта
1%
Военные действия до 31 марта
96%
Военные действия до 31 марта 96%
31 марта 1.4%
30 марта 1.3%
29 марта <1%
$2,727,865 Объем
$2,727,865 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
29 марта
$300,064 Объем
<1%
30 марта
$287,423 Объем
1%
31 марта
$413,523 Объем
1%
Военные действия до 31 марта
$578,969 Объем
96%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices military action against Iran continuing through March 31 at 95%, reflecting sustained US-Israeli airstrikes, including Israel's March 27 attacks on major nuclear and industrial sites in Iran, which signal ongoing escalation in the conflict that erupted February 28 with strikes killing Iran's supreme leader. Secretary of State Rubio indicated the campaign will last weeks, not months, without US ground troops, while President Trump paused only energy sector strikes until April 6 amid peace talks following a US 15-point proposal sent March 24. Over 300 US soldiers recently wounded highlight persistent operations. Realistic challenges include a sudden ceasefire from negotiations or de-escalation signals, absent amid current hostilities.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Объем
$2,727,865Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices military action against Iran continuing through March 31 at 95%, reflecting sustained US-Israeli airstrikes, including Israel's March 27 attacks on major nuclear and industrial sites in Iran, which signal ongoing escalation in the conflict that erupted February 28 with strikes killing Iran's supreme leader. Secretary of State Rubio indicated the campaign will last weeks, not months, without US ground troops, while President Trump paused only energy sector strikes until April 6 amid peace talks following a US 15-point proposal sent March 24. Over 300 US soldiers recently wounded highlight persistent operations. Realistic challenges include a sudden ceasefire from negotiations or de-escalation signals, absent amid current hostilities.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,727,865Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Trader consensus prices military action against Iran continuing through March 31 at 95%, reflecting sustained US-Israeli airstrikes, including Israel's March 27 attacks on major nuclear and industrial sites in Iran, which signal ongoing escalation in the conflict that erupted February 28 with strikes killing Iran's supreme leader. Secretary of State Rubio indicated the campaign will last weeks, not months, without US ground troops, while President Trump paused only energy sector strikes until April 6 amid peace talks following a US 15-point proposal sent March 24. Over 300 US soldiers recently wounded highlight persistent operations. Realistic challenges include a sudden ceasefire from negotiations or de-escalation signals, absent amid current hostilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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