Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian missile production facilities and air defense systems, killing four soldiers according to Tehran, which reported minimal damage and vowed but has not yet executed major retaliation. This marked the latest direct military action against Iran amid broader regional tensions, including ongoing proxy conflicts with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Diplomatic efforts by the U.S. and allies emphasize de-escalation to avert wider war, while Iran's restraint reflects risks of escalation. Traders monitor potential Iranian responses, Israeli preemptive strikes, Gaza ceasefire talks, and U.S. policy shifts under President-elect Trump, whose past maximum pressure campaign on Iran could influence future dynamics before key resolution dates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$144,089 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
March 26
<1%
March 27
<1%
March 28
2%
March 29
5%
March 30
8%
March 31
11%
15 апреля
35%
30 апреля
55%
31 мая
53%
30 июня
76%
$144,089 Объем
March 26
$19,977 Объем
<1%
March 27
$7,565 Объем
<1%
March 28
$13,681 Объем
2%
March 29
$19,495 Объем
5%
March 30
$15,350 Объем
8%
March 31
$67,438 Объем
11%
15 апреля
$433 Объем
35%
30 апреля
$0 Объем
55%
31 мая
$148 Объем
53%
30 июня
$0 Объем
76%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian missile production facilities and air defense systems, killing four soldiers according to Tehran, which reported minimal damage and vowed but has not yet executed major retaliation. This marked the latest direct military action against Iran amid broader regional tensions, including ongoing proxy conflicts with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Diplomatic efforts by the U.S. and allies emphasize de-escalation to avert wider war, while Iran's restraint reflects risks of escalation. Traders monitor potential Iranian responses, Israeli preemptive strikes, Gaza ceasefire talks, and U.S. policy shifts under President-elect Trump, whose past maximum pressure campaign on Iran could influence future dynamics before key resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Объем
$144,089Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian missile production facilities and air defense systems, killing four soldiers according to Tehran, which reported minimal damage and vowed but has not yet executed major retaliation. This marked the latest direct military action against Iran amid broader regional tensions, including ongoing proxy conflicts with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Diplomatic efforts by the U.S. and allies emphasize de-escalation to avert wider war, while Iran's restraint reflects risks of escalation. Traders monitor potential Iranian responses, Israeli preemptive strikes, Gaza ceasefire talks, and U.S. policy shifts under President-elect Trump, whose past maximum pressure campaign on Iran could influence future dynamics before key resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$144,089Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian missile production facilities and air defense systems, killing four soldiers according to Tehran, which reported minimal damage and vowed but has not yet executed major retaliation. This marked the latest direct military action against Iran amid broader regional tensions, including ongoing proxy conflicts with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Diplomatic efforts by the U.S. and allies emphasize de-escalation to avert wider war, while Iran's restraint reflects risks of escalation. Traders monitor potential Iranian responses, Israeli preemptive strikes, Gaza ceasefire talks, and U.S. policy shifts under President-elect Trump, whose past maximum pressure campaign on Iran could influence future dynamics before key resolution dates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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