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Климат и наука·Наука

Март 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)

Market icon
Климат и наука·Наука

Март 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)

Apr 10

Apr 10

1,20–1,24ºC 46%

1,25–1,29ºC 23.1%

1,15–1,19ºC 18%

>1,29ºC 10.2%

Polymarket

$164,745 Объем

1,20–1,24ºC 46%

1,25–1,29ºC 23.1%

1,15–1,19ºC 18%

>1,29ºC 10.2%

Polymarket

$164,745 Объем

<1,10ºC

$19,530 Объем

3%

1,10–1,14ºC

$21,375 Объем

6%

1,15–1,19ºC

$46,750 Объем

18%

1,20–1,24ºC

$29,348 Объем

46%

1,25–1,29ºC

$20,143 Объем

23%

>1,29ºC

$27,599 Объем

10%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Объем
$164,745
Дата окончания
Apr 10, 2026
Открытие рынка
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Trader consensus centers on a March 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.20–1.24ºC (45% implied probability), driven by NOAA's forecast of La Niña development (over 70% chance for early 2026), which typically suppresses global mean surface temperatures by 0.1–0.2ºC relative to neutral or El Niño conditions. Recent Copernicus data shows October 2024 at 1.43ºC above pre-industrial levels amid fading El Niño effects, but multi-model ensembles from ECMWF and IRI project a reversion toward the 1.2ºC range amid persistent anthropogenic warming trends. Lower odds for extremes reflect ENSO uncertainty and baseline upward trajectory from greenhouse gases, positioning 1.15–1.29ºC bins as leading outcomes.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Март 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 6 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «1,20–1,24ºC» с 46%, за ним следует «1,25–1,29ºC» с 23%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 46¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 46%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Март 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $164.7K с момента запуска рынка Feb 28, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Март 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)», просмотри 6 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Март 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)» — «1,20–1,24ºC» с 46%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 46%. Следующий ближайший исход — «1,25–1,29ºC» с 23%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Март 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.