Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no impeachment of Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung before 2027, primarily due to his party's majority control of South Korea's National Assembly since the April 2024 legislative elections, making passage of any impeachment motion improbable without bipartisan support. Recent catalysts include a November 2024 appellate court decision overturning his election law conviction—pending Supreme Court review—and the December 14 opposition-led impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol over a failed martial law bid, which has shifted political focus away from Lee amid his ongoing trials for alleged bribery and false statements in development cases. No formal impeachment proceedings have advanced, underscoring assembly dynamics as the key barrier.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЛи Чжэ Мён был подвергнут импичменту до 2027 года?
Ли Чжэ Мён был подвергнут импичменту до 2027 года?
Да
Да
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no impeachment of Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung before 2027, primarily due to his party's majority control of South Korea's National Assembly since the April 2024 legislative elections, making passage of any impeachment motion improbable without bipartisan support. Recent catalysts include a November 2024 appellate court decision overturning his election law conviction—pending Supreme Court review—and the December 14 opposition-led impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol over a failed martial law bid, which has shifted political focus away from Lee amid his ongoing trials for alleged bribery and false statements in development cases. No formal impeachment proceedings have advanced, underscoring assembly dynamics as the key barrier.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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