The US-Israel war against Iran, entering its fifth week since late February airstrikes targeted regime assets and nuclear sites, intensified on March 29–30 with Israeli strikes hitting targets across Tehran, including energy infrastructure, prompting Iranian missile barrages on southern Israel's industrial zones and Gulf states. Iran-backed Houthis escalated by launching their first direct attacks on Israel, while US CENTCOM bolstered deployments amid warnings from Tehran against ground troops. Diplomatic momentum stalled after Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire plan five days ago, offering a counterproposal as President Trump extended deadlines for potential invasion planning. Traders weigh persistent airstrikes, proxy involvement, and mediation efforts by Oman and Pakistan against slim near-term de-escalation odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКонфликт между Ираном и Израилем/США закончится...?
Конфликт между Ираном и Израилем/США закончится...?
$8,434,031 Объем
Mar 15, 2026
31 марта
1%
15 апреля
14%
7 апреля
4%
30 апреля
25%
15 мая
38%
30 июня
60%
31 декабря
80%
$8,434,031 Объем
31 марта
$4,341,964 Объем
1%
15 апреля
$955,356 Объем
14%
7 апреля
$141,255 Объем
4%
30 апреля
$727,540 Объем
25%
15 мая
$1,218,150 Объем
38%
30 июня
$828,636 Объем
60%
31 декабря
$221,130 Объем
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel war against Iran, entering its fifth week since late February airstrikes targeted regime assets and nuclear sites, intensified on March 29–30 with Israeli strikes hitting targets across Tehran, including energy infrastructure, prompting Iranian missile barrages on southern Israel's industrial zones and Gulf states. Iran-backed Houthis escalated by launching their first direct attacks on Israel, while US CENTCOM bolstered deployments amid warnings from Tehran against ground troops. Diplomatic momentum stalled after Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire plan five days ago, offering a counterproposal as President Trump extended deadlines for potential invasion planning. Traders weigh persistent airstrikes, proxy involvement, and mediation efforts by Oman and Pakistan against slim near-term de-escalation odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Открытие рынка: Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
Объем
$8,434,031Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel war against Iran, entering its fifth week since late February airstrikes targeted regime assets and nuclear sites, intensified on March 29–30 with Israeli strikes hitting targets across Tehran, including energy infrastructure, prompting Iranian missile barrages on southern Israel's industrial zones and Gulf states. Iran-backed Houthis escalated by launching their first direct attacks on Israel, while US CENTCOM bolstered deployments amid warnings from Tehran against ground troops. Diplomatic momentum stalled after Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire plan five days ago, offering a counterproposal as President Trump extended deadlines for potential invasion planning. Traders weigh persistent airstrikes, proxy involvement, and mediation efforts by Oman and Pakistan against slim near-term de-escalation odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Объем
$8,434,031Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
The US-Israel war against Iran, entering its fifth week since late February airstrikes targeted regime assets and nuclear sites, intensified on March 29–30 with Israeli strikes hitting targets across Tehran, including energy infrastructure, prompting Iranian missile barrages on southern Israel's industrial zones and Gulf states. Iran-backed Houthis escalated by launching their first direct attacks on Israel, while US CENTCOM bolstered deployments amid warnings from Tehran against ground troops. Diplomatic momentum stalled after Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire plan five days ago, offering a counterproposal as President Trump extended deadlines for potential invasion planning. Traders weigh persistent airstrikes, proxy involvement, and mediation efforts by Oman and Pakistan against slim near-term de-escalation odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы