The US-Israel war against Iran, launched with massive airstrikes on February 28 targeting missiles, air defenses, and nuclear sites, marks one month of sustained military action as of late March 2026, with Israeli forces recently hitting industrial facilities, power grids, and weapons production in Tehran amid Iranian missile barrages on Israel and proxy attacks by Houthis and Hezbollah. Trader consensus reflects ongoing escalation despite a US 15-point ceasefire proposal conveyed via Pakistan on March 24, which Iran has reviewed but largely rejected, prompting intensified strikes that have degraded two-thirds of Tehran's missile and naval capabilities. Regional powers plan talks in Pakistan on March 30 to seek de-escalation, while 2,500 US Marines bolster positioning, underscoring high uncertainty over diplomatic breakthroughs versus prolonged airstrikes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКонфликт между Ираном и Израилем/США закончится...?
Конфликт между Ираном и Израилем/США закончится...?
$8,234,476 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
31 марта
1%
15 апреля
15%
7 апреля
5%
30 апреля
34%
15 мая
44%
30 июня
63%
31 декабря
82%
$8,234,476 Объем
31 марта
$4,309,465 Объем
1%
15 апреля
$932,316 Объем
15%
7 апреля
$112,955 Объем
5%
30 апреля
$678,208 Объем
34%
15 мая
$1,190,400 Объем
44%
30 июня
$809,482 Объем
63%
31 декабря
$201,686 Объем
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel war against Iran, launched with massive airstrikes on February 28 targeting missiles, air defenses, and nuclear sites, marks one month of sustained military action as of late March 2026, with Israeli forces recently hitting industrial facilities, power grids, and weapons production in Tehran amid Iranian missile barrages on Israel and proxy attacks by Houthis and Hezbollah. Trader consensus reflects ongoing escalation despite a US 15-point ceasefire proposal conveyed via Pakistan on March 24, which Iran has reviewed but largely rejected, prompting intensified strikes that have degraded two-thirds of Tehran's missile and naval capabilities. Regional powers plan talks in Pakistan on March 30 to seek de-escalation, while 2,500 US Marines bolster positioning, underscoring high uncertainty over diplomatic breakthroughs versus prolonged airstrikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Открытие рынка: Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Объем
$8,234,476Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel war against Iran, launched with massive airstrikes on February 28 targeting missiles, air defenses, and nuclear sites, marks one month of sustained military action as of late March 2026, with Israeli forces recently hitting industrial facilities, power grids, and weapons production in Tehran amid Iranian missile barrages on Israel and proxy attacks by Houthis and Hezbollah. Trader consensus reflects ongoing escalation despite a US 15-point ceasefire proposal conveyed via Pakistan on March 24, which Iran has reviewed but largely rejected, prompting intensified strikes that have degraded two-thirds of Tehran's missile and naval capabilities. Regional powers plan talks in Pakistan on March 30 to seek de-escalation, while 2,500 US Marines bolster positioning, underscoring high uncertainty over diplomatic breakthroughs versus prolonged airstrikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Объем
$8,234,476Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US-Israel war against Iran, launched with massive airstrikes on February 28 targeting missiles, air defenses, and nuclear sites, marks one month of sustained military action as of late March 2026, with Israeli forces recently hitting industrial facilities, power grids, and weapons production in Tehran amid Iranian missile barrages on Israel and proxy attacks by Houthis and Hezbollah. Trader consensus reflects ongoing escalation despite a US 15-point ceasefire proposal conveyed via Pakistan on March 24, which Iran has reviewed but largely rejected, prompting intensified strikes that have degraded two-thirds of Tehran's missile and naval capabilities. Regional powers plan talks in Pakistan on March 30 to seek de-escalation, while 2,500 US Marines bolster positioning, underscoring high uncertainty over diplomatic breakthroughs versus prolonged airstrikes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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