Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 150+ US tornadoes in March 2026 at 99.7% implied probability, driven by Storm Prediction Center (SPC) preliminary counts surpassing 180 confirmed events from multiple outbreaks, including 30+ on March 12, 38 on March 15, and others on March 5–7, 10–11, and 26. Unseasonably warm, humid Gulf air clashing with potent wind shear fueled repeated supercell development across the South, Midwest, and Ohio Valley, shattering the 1991–2020 March average of about 95 tornadoes. Final National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) audits could trim counts by 20–35% as non-tornadic reports are filtered, but a drop below 150 would require unprecedented downgrades across dozens of National Weather Service surveys—highly improbable given ongoing verifications. Watch for the April NCEI monthly tornado report for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСколько торнадо в США в марте?
Сколько торнадо в США в марте?
150+ 99.6%
130–149 <1%
100–129 <1%
<70 <1%
$158,360 Объем
$158,360 Объем
Apr 10, 2026
<70
<1%
70–99
<1%
100–129
<1%
130–149
<1%
150+
100%
150+ 99.6%
130–149 <1%
100–129 <1%
<70 <1%
$158,360 Объем
$158,360 Объем
Apr 10, 2026
<70
$25,180 Объем
<1%
70–99
$22,919 Объем
<1%
100–129
$28,871 Объем
<1%
130–149
$29,334 Объем
<1%
150+
$52,057 Объем
100%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 150+ US tornadoes in March 2026 at 99.7% implied probability, driven by Storm Prediction Center (SPC) preliminary counts surpassing 180 confirmed events from multiple outbreaks, including 30+ on March 12, 38 on March 15, and others on March 5–7, 10–11, and 26. Unseasonably warm, humid Gulf air clashing with potent wind shear fueled repeated supercell development across the South, Midwest, and Ohio Valley, shattering the 1991–2020 March average of about 95 tornadoes. Final National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) audits could trim counts by 20–35% as non-tornadic reports are filtered, but a drop below 150 would require unprecedented downgrades across dozens of National Weather Service surveys—highly improbable given ongoing verifications. Watch for the April NCEI monthly tornado report for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Открытие рынка: Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Объем
$158,360Дата окончания
Apr 10, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 150+ US tornadoes in March 2026 at 99.7% implied probability, driven by Storm Prediction Center (SPC) preliminary counts surpassing 180 confirmed events from multiple outbreaks, including 30+ on March 12, 38 on March 15, and others on March 5–7, 10–11, and 26. Unseasonably warm, humid Gulf air clashing with potent wind shear fueled repeated supercell development across the South, Midwest, and Ohio Valley, shattering the 1991–2020 March average of about 95 tornadoes. Final National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) audits could trim counts by 20–35% as non-tornadic reports are filtered, but a drop below 150 would require unprecedented downgrades across dozens of National Weather Service surveys—highly improbable given ongoing verifications. Watch for the April NCEI monthly tornado report for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Объем
$158,360Дата окончания
Apr 10, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 150+ US tornadoes in March 2026 at 99.7% implied probability, driven by Storm Prediction Center (SPC) preliminary counts surpassing 180 confirmed events from multiple outbreaks, including 30+ on March 12, 38 on March 15, and others on March 5–7, 10–11, and 26. Unseasonably warm, humid Gulf air clashing with potent wind shear fueled repeated supercell development across the South, Midwest, and Ohio Valley, shattering the 1991–2020 March average of about 95 tornadoes. Final National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) audits could trim counts by 20–35% as non-tornadic reports are filtered, but a drop below 150 would require unprecedented downgrades across dozens of National Weather Service surveys—highly improbable given ongoing verifications. Watch for the April NCEI monthly tornado report for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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