SpaceX's unprecedented launch cadence, with reusable Falcon 9 rockets enabling near-weekly Starlink missions, drives near-certain trader odds for 12 or more launches in March, as telemetry tracking and official manifests confirm 11 successes already midway through the month and at least two more windowed before March 31. Peer-reviewed aerospace analyses and FAA data underscore booster turnaround times averaging under 30 days, boosting reliability to over 98% success rates historically. Favorable NOAA weather outlooks minimize scrub risks, while orbital slotting constraints favor density. Realistic challenges include upper-stage anomalies, as in rare RUD events, or unexpected FAA ground holds, though precedent suggests minimal impact on monthly totals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСколько SpaceX запустит в марте?
Сколько SpaceX запустит в марте?
12 или больше 100.0%
≤6 <1%
7 <1%
8 <1%
$5,967 Объем
$5,967 Объем
≤6
Нет
7
Нет
8
Нет
9
Нет
10
Нет
11
Нет
12 или больше
Да
12 или больше 100.0%
≤6 <1%
7 <1%
8 <1%
$5,967 Объем
$5,967 Объем
≤6
Нет
7
Нет
8
Нет
9
Нет
10
Нет
11
Нет
12 или больше
Да
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Открытие рынка: Feb 27, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's unprecedented launch cadence, with reusable Falcon 9 rockets enabling near-weekly Starlink missions, drives near-certain trader odds for 12 or more launches in March, as telemetry tracking and official manifests confirm 11 successes already midway through the month and at least two more windowed before March 31. Peer-reviewed aerospace analyses and FAA data underscore booster turnaround times averaging under 30 days, boosting reliability to over 98% success rates historically. Favorable NOAA weather outlooks minimize scrub risks, while orbital slotting constraints favor density. Realistic challenges include upper-stage anomalies, as in rare RUD events, or unexpected FAA ground holds, though precedent suggests minimal impact on monthly totals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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