Israel's multi-front military campaign against Iran and its proxies, launched February 28 alongside U.S. strikes that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and targeted nuclear sites, missile production, and leadership, has already involved airstrikes in at least five sovereign states—Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen—driving trader consensus toward ≥4 countries (49.5%) and 3 (38%) for April. Defense Minister Israel Katz's March 27 vow to "intensify and expand" operations, coupled with IDF Chief of Staff statements on combat plans extending to mid-April Passover amid ongoing Hezbollah rocket exchanges and Houthi missile launches, sustains elevated probabilities for continued strikes. Recent Lebanese strikes killing journalists underscore persistent escalation risks, though diplomatic signals or Iranian degradation could limit targets.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHow many different countries will Israel strike in April?
How many different countries will Israel strike in April?
≥4 50%
3 38%
2 7%
≤1 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
3%
2
7%
3
38%
≥4
50%
≥4 50%
3 38%
2 7%
≤1 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$310 Объем
3%
2
$523 Объем
7%
3
$811 Объем
38%
≥4
$1,092 Объем
50%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's multi-front military campaign against Iran and its proxies, launched February 28 alongside U.S. strikes that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and targeted nuclear sites, missile production, and leadership, has already involved airstrikes in at least five sovereign states—Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen—driving trader consensus toward ≥4 countries (49.5%) and 3 (38%) for April. Defense Minister Israel Katz's March 27 vow to "intensify and expand" operations, coupled with IDF Chief of Staff statements on combat plans extending to mid-April Passover amid ongoing Hezbollah rocket exchanges and Houthi missile launches, sustains elevated probabilities for continued strikes. Recent Lebanese strikes killing journalists underscore persistent escalation risks, though diplomatic signals or Iranian degradation could limit targets.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Объем
$2,615Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's multi-front military campaign against Iran and its proxies, launched February 28 alongside U.S. strikes that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and targeted nuclear sites, missile production, and leadership, has already involved airstrikes in at least five sovereign states—Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen—driving trader consensus toward ≥4 countries (49.5%) and 3 (38%) for April. Defense Minister Israel Katz's March 27 vow to "intensify and expand" operations, coupled with IDF Chief of Staff statements on combat plans extending to mid-April Passover amid ongoing Hezbollah rocket exchanges and Houthi missile launches, sustains elevated probabilities for continued strikes. Recent Lebanese strikes killing journalists underscore persistent escalation risks, though diplomatic signals or Iranian degradation could limit targets.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,615Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Israel's multi-front military campaign against Iran and its proxies, launched February 28 alongside U.S. strikes that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and targeted nuclear sites, missile production, and leadership, has already involved airstrikes in at least five sovereign states—Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen—driving trader consensus toward ≥4 countries (49.5%) and 3 (38%) for April. Defense Minister Israel Katz's March 27 vow to "intensify and expand" operations, coupled with IDF Chief of Staff statements on combat plans extending to mid-April Passover amid ongoing Hezbollah rocket exchanges and Houthi missile launches, sustains elevated probabilities for continued strikes. Recent Lebanese strikes killing journalists underscore persistent escalation risks, though diplomatic signals or Iranian degradation could limit targets.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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