The US lifting sanctions on Venezuela's interim president Delcy Rodríguez on April 1 signals de-escalation and normalization efforts following the January 3 military strikes that captured Nicolás Maduro, driving trader consensus toward low near-term probabilities for another US strike. President Trump's March 28 speech touting successes and hinting at a potential "second and much larger attack" alongside oil sector integration plans sustains modest long-term risks, reflected in year-end odds around 23%. No verified escalations like airstrikes or troop movements have occurred in the past 30 days, with focus shifting to Venezuelan elections possibly by December 31 and coalition dynamics under the interim government. Upcoming diplomatic channels and oil revenue controls could further reduce military action odds unless provoked by narcotics or territorial disputes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$2,526,387 Объем
31 янв. 2026 г.
31 марта
1%
31 декабря
21%
$2,526,387 Объем
31 марта
$167,745 Объем
1%
31 декабря
$485,099 Объем
21%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The US lifting sanctions on Venezuela's interim president Delcy Rodríguez on April 1 signals de-escalation and normalization efforts following the January 3 military strikes that captured Nicolás Maduro, driving trader consensus toward low near-term probabilities for another US strike. President Trump's March 28 speech touting successes and hinting at a potential "second and much larger attack" alongside oil sector integration plans sustains modest long-term risks, reflected in year-end odds around 23%. No verified escalations like airstrikes or troop movements have occurred in the past 30 days, with focus shifting to Venezuelan elections possibly by December 31 and coalition dynamics under the interim government. Upcoming diplomatic channels and oil revenue controls could further reduce military action odds unless provoked by narcotics or territorial disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Jan 4, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Объем
$2,526,387Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The US lifting sanctions on Venezuela's interim president Delcy Rodríguez on April 1 signals de-escalation and normalization efforts following the January 3 military strikes that captured Nicolás Maduro, driving trader consensus toward low near-term probabilities for another US strike. President Trump's March 28 speech touting successes and hinting at a potential "second and much larger attack" alongside oil sector integration plans sustains modest long-term risks, reflected in year-end odds around 23%. No verified escalations like airstrikes or troop movements have occurred in the past 30 days, with focus shifting to Venezuelan elections possibly by December 31 and coalition dynamics under the interim government. Upcoming diplomatic channels and oil revenue controls could further reduce military action odds unless provoked by narcotics or territorial disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$2,526,387Дата окончания
31 янв. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US lifting sanctions on Venezuela's interim president Delcy Rodríguez on April 1 signals de-escalation and normalization efforts following the January 3 military strikes that captured Nicolás Maduro, driving trader consensus toward low near-term probabilities for another US strike. President Trump's March 28 speech touting successes and hinting at a potential "second and much larger attack" alongside oil sector integration plans sustains modest long-term risks, reflected in year-end odds around 23%. No verified escalations like airstrikes or troop movements have occurred in the past 30 days, with focus shifting to Venezuelan elections possibly by December 31 and coalition dynamics under the interim government. Upcoming diplomatic channels and oil revenue controls could further reduce military action odds unless provoked by narcotics or territorial disputes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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