Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86% implied probability of no additional US bank failure by March 31, driven primarily by the sector's stabilization since the 2023 collapses of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic, with zero failures recorded in the subsequent 20 months per FDIC data. Bolstering this sentiment are robust capital ratios from recent stress tests, ample liquidity buffers, and Federal Reserve rate cuts alleviating deposit flight risks and unrealized losses on securities portfolios. While commercial real estate exposure lingers as a tail risk, banks' increased loan loss provisions and slowing distress signals have eased concerns, with Q4 earnings anticipated to affirm resilience absent major macroeconomic shocks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$88,476 Объем
$88,476 Объем
Да
$88,476 Объем
$88,476 Объем
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Открытие рынка: Jan 31, 2026, 1:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86% implied probability of no additional US bank failure by March 31, driven primarily by the sector's stabilization since the 2023 collapses of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic, with zero failures recorded in the subsequent 20 months per FDIC data. Bolstering this sentiment are robust capital ratios from recent stress tests, ample liquidity buffers, and Federal Reserve rate cuts alleviating deposit flight risks and unrealized losses on securities portfolios. While commercial real estate exposure lingers as a tail risk, banks' increased loan loss provisions and slowing distress signals have eased concerns, with Q4 earnings anticipated to affirm resilience absent major macroeconomic shocks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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