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Geopolítica·EUA X Irão

Vance visitará o Oriente Médio até...?

Market icon
Geopolítica·EUA X Irão

Vance visitará o Oriente Médio até...?

$134,146 Vol.

30 abr 2026
Polymarket

$134,146 Vol.

Polymarket

10 de abril

$48,584 Vol.

7%

If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, including disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear compliance, Vice President JD Vance's potential visit to the Greater Middle East by April 30 remains a focal point for traders assessing Trump administration diplomacy. Late March rumors of Vance traveling to Pakistan—explicitly included in the market's scope—for indirect talks with Iranian representatives after Netanyahu meetings fueled speculation, bolstered by White House statements on his national security involvement. However, no trip occurred, prompting recent social media scrutiny and questions about mediation viability. Ongoing military posturing and extended presidential deadlines could prompt a late announcement, though security risks and virtual alternatives pose barriers to physical travel.

If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$134,146
Data de Término
30 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 5:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, including disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear compliance, Vice President JD Vance's potential visit to the Greater Middle East by April 30 remains a focal point for traders assessing Trump administration diplomacy. Late March rumors of Vance traveling to Pakistan—explicitly included in the market's scope—for indirect talks with Iranian representatives after Netanyahu meetings fueled speculation, bolstered by White House statements on his national security involvement. However, no trip occurred, prompting recent social media scrutiny and questions about mediation viability. Ongoing military posturing and extended presidential deadlines could prompt a late announcement, though security risks and virtual alternatives pose barriers to physical travel.

If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$134,146
Data de Término
30 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 5:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vance visitará o Oriente Médio até...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "10 de abril" at 7%, followed by "31 de março" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vance visitará o Oriente Médio até...?" has generated $134.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vance visitará o Oriente Médio até...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Vance visitará o Oriente Médio até...?" is "10 de abril" at just 7%, with "31 de março" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Vance visitará o Oriente Médio até...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.