Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic (99.3% implied probability) for the second-best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's firm grip on the #2 spot of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score of 1503—trailing only Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1505. This positioning stems from Claude's superior performance in reasoning, coding, and creative benchmarks since its early March rollout, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.2, xAI's Grok-4, and others amid stable rankings over the past week despite testing leaks like Google's Gemma 4. While a last-minute model release from OpenAI or xAI could challenge this through rapid Elo gains, no such shifts have materialized, cementing trader confidence in Anthropic's competitive edge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de março?
Qual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de março?
Anthropic 99.3%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$704,440 Vol.
$704,440 Vol.

Anthropic
99%

<1%

OpenAI
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

xAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 99.3%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$704,440 Vol.
$704,440 Vol.

Anthropic
99%

<1%

OpenAI
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

xAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic (99.3% implied probability) for the second-best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's firm grip on the #2 spot of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score of 1503—trailing only Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1505. This positioning stems from Claude's superior performance in reasoning, coding, and creative benchmarks since its early March rollout, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.2, xAI's Grok-4, and others amid stable rankings over the past week despite testing leaks like Google's Gemma 4. While a last-minute model release from OpenAI or xAI could challenge this through rapid Elo gains, no such shifts have materialized, cementing trader confidence in Anthropic's competitive edge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions